Predicting The Ad Rates: ABC

Predicting The Ad Rates: ABC
Here are my predictions for the ABC ad rates, as reported by Variety. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

America’s Funniest Home Videos
The long-running reality show had a nice year in the ratings last season, but it always stuck with low ad rates. Now that it is moving back to the 7pm hour, I expect low ad rates again, though perhaps it will have a little more value.

2017 Ad Rate: $55,711
2018 Prediction: $62,842

Dancing With The Stars Junior
Instead of airing in the summer like originally thought, this Dancing with the Stars spin-off will air in the fall as counter-programming for football and football-boosted prime time programming. With Dancing with the Stars itself looking weaker recently, I’m not sure just how much they’ll get away with charging.

2018 Prediction: $84,231

Shark Tank
Shark Tank will move away from its signature Friday night time slot for the 2nd season in a row. It’s now an established Sunday player for ABC, so I’d find it hard to believe if it’s valued lower this season.

2017 Ad Rate: $84,000
2018 Prediction: $86,298

The Alec Baldwin Show
From the start, this has reminded me of NBC’s Megyn Kelly experiment. This will likely garner more media hype than ratings. Alec Baldwin had a late-night experiment before that did not last long. I see this more of a placeholder until American Idol arrives again. It’s hard to tell at this point whether ABC sees it as this way or not, which will really decide if the ad rate is high or not. I’m going low.

2018 Prediction: $67,345

Dancing with the Stars
I’m very concerned about overexposure of this dancing competition, with it essentially expanded to three hours a week in the fall. That said, I think ABC will try to go high on the show that has made Monday a relatively easy night for them to schedule for more than a decade.

2017 Ad Rate: $103,921
2018 Prediction: $107,946

The Good Doctor
This new medical drama sensation was undervalued last season, which is understandable given how tough it is to launch a show at 10pm that brings in Live + Same Day viewers. I’d be surprised if this isn’t one of the shows with the highest ad rates.

2017 Ad Rate: $117,921
2018 Prediction: $182,759

The Connors 
Roseanne was the star of Roseanne and the primary reason why people tuned in. Maybe it will premiere high, but I think advertisers will be willing to pay much more for this show than it would really be worth.

2018 Prediction: $152,734

The Kids Are Alright
On paper, this show has everything that ABC wants in a comedy: family, retro, full of heart, voiceover...basically The Goldbergs but in the 1970s instead of 80s. Its ratings will probably be front-loaded due to the lead-in. I expect a solid rate out of this one, likely an improvement over Fresh Off The Boat’s.

2018 Prediction: $118,251

Black-ish
Black-ish will be entering its 2nd season on Tuesdays, meaning both ABC and advertisers will likely know more in terms of what to expect, and the ratings declines likely will not be as sharp. That said, it was probably a bit overpriced last season.

2017 Ad Rate: $124,829
2018 Prediction: $119,785

Splitting Up Together
Splitting Up Together did solid enough for a renewal last season, but it also aired in the Roseanne halo. I think in general ABC’s Tuesday nights will be a little overpriced due to likely high expectations for The Connors. 

2017 Ad Rate: $109,141
2018 Prediction: $116,542

The Rookie
The catch with this show appears to be that it stars Nathan Fillion from Castle.  The question is if that’s enough to separate it from the extremely long list of big flops aired in that time slot. This is a wild card to me on what ABC expects, and what they realistically can get away with charging now that Roseanne is out of the picture. My guess is they go high.

2018 Prediction: $100,472

The Goldbergs
The Goldbergs has proven to be a great player for ABC. With Roseanne and a Roseanne-boosted Middle out of the picture, as well as a declining Modern Family, there’s a chance The Goldbergs is ABC’s highest-rated comedy in several weeks. That being said, it is likely also getting expensive and living off the hope that ABC can make enough ad revenue in a world where owning shows matters more than ever. I foresee them trying to get every penny out of it.

2017 Ad Rate: $146,993
2018 Prediction: $162,111

American Housewife
American Housewife is yet to have a stable time slot, which makes me wonder if ABC knows exactly where they want to air it. It did fine in the 9:30 time slot last season, and probably had a more compatible lead-in.

2017 Ad Rate: $114,193
2018 Prediction: $116,023

Modern Family
Maybe Modern Family is about to become an in-house production, but chances are its ratings will be too low to even continue by the time the Disney-Fox deal goes through (if it does). I can’t see a situation where this is kept in the $200,000+ bracket, as it is losing steam in both ratings and critical acclaim. They’ll charge enough to make sure the show makes money, but it probably won’t be their most profitable comedy.

2017 Ad Rate: $205,652
2018 Prediction: $171,018

Single Parents
My guess is that ABC will put a lot of focus on the new Tuesday comedies and 10pm dramas that Single Parents will take more of a back seat in promotion, with the hope being the Modern Family lead-in will give it automatic exposure. Of course, if it flops, there aren’t really any backup options.

2018 Prediction: $106,562

A Million Little Things
The 10pm Wednesday time slot is going to something more lighthearted and compatible with comedies this fall, which is definitely in favor of A Million Little Things being a solid 10pm show in the ratings. ABC has been struggling a lot in the 10pm time slot in recent years, so they may go more conservative on the ad rate in case it doesn’t do well.

2018 Prediction: $89,492

Grey’s Anatomy
While once the lowest-rated show in the Shonda Rhimes-only Thursday night block (a.k.a. TGIT), Grey’s Anatomy has a proven record of stable and high ratings. I don’t see it getting up to $200,000, but it should be even higher than last season.

2017 Ad Rate: $184,273
2018 Prediction: $192,723

Station 19
Station 19 had steady ratings in its first season, though we may never know if it’s living off of Grey’s Anatomy or not. I think the ad rate they gave it last season was fair and will be around it again, maybe a little higher.

2017 Ad Rate: $107,272
2018 Prediction: $111,927

How To Get Away With Murder
Maybe it has a very upscale audience, but in pure A18-49 this show has been overvalued for the last couple seasons. While still a decent 10pm player for them, I think it will come back down to earth a bit this season.

2017 Ad Rate: $145,772
2018 Prediction: $121,012

Fresh Off The Boat
It’s not much of a surprise that Fresh Off The Boat is returning given how close to the magic syndication episode count it is. While it could have been held as a midseason replacement, it appears it will be leading off Fridays in the fall, making it much tougher to predict an ad rate. My guess is it will be in the ballpark range of Once Upon A Time’s, which turned out to be very overvalued but might not be for Fresh Off The Boat.

2017 Ad Rate: $106,370
2018 Prediction: $74,282

Speechless
Speechless did fine on Wednesdays for the past two seasons, but got pushed out of the weekday schedule, likely due to Splitting Up Together’s performance in the spring. I’d say it’ll be valued around the same as its lead-in.

2017 Ad Rate: $126,241
2018 Prediction: $74,845

Child Support
Child Support did decently on Fridays in the winter, but as the finale showed, may have been helped a bit by the local affiliate programming that aired in the 7pm hour. Also, winter is a high-viewed period that makes it easier for reality shows to succeed. Since there is no reported ad rate for the first season, I’ll go by my guts and say they’ll price this around the same as the comedies.

2018 Prediction: $71,582

20/20
20/20 had a rough season with the Marvel series lead-in. Child Support should do a tiny bit better but be no more compatible. I see an ad rate decline incoming.

2017 Ad Rate: $54,553
2018 Prediction: $51,054

Schooled
It is unknown when and where this spinoff of The Goldbergs will air, making it tough to predict an ad rate. My guess is they try to have it lead off Tuesday nights midseason.

Ad Rate Prediction: $90,284

The Fix
The Fix is coming midseason, and is a legal drama, which is not something that has been working for the network in the recent past. However, with it being one of three new dramas on ABC’s bench, it is somewhat likely it will get exposure after American Idol in the spring. Or it could simply be dumped in the summer.

Ad Rate Prediction: $88,914


Grand Hotel
With Eva Longoria as an executive producer and being an adaptation of a successful Spanish series, I figure ABC will likely want to air this after American Idol or as a midseason replacement for A Million Little Things if that doesn’t work out. I don’t think it’s looking at a six-figure ad rate, but close to it seems realistic.

Ad Rate Prediction: $93,472

Whiskey Cavalier
This FBI drama is one of four dramas on ABC’s bench, and one of three new ones. It is produced and distributed by Warner Brothers, meaning ABC will need to rely on ad revenue throughout its run if they want to make money. It seems like a 10pm show that ABC would like to try after American Idol.

Ad Rate Prediction: $85,284

For The People
For The People squeezed by for a second season thanks in large part to ABC’s continued love with Shonda Rhymes. With three new dramas waiting to air, I don’t see this getting a high-profile second chance.

2017 Ad Rate: $104,964
2018-19 Prediction: $72,918

Marvel’s Agents Of SHIELD
Marvel’s Agents Of SHIELD was likely renewed due to corporate synergy. With the time slots it has been getting and the late decision, I’m not all that convinced ABC even wants the show on their schedule.

2017 Ad Rate: $67,750
2018-19 Prediction: $49,222

American Idol
American Idol proved worthy of high ad rates through its successful 1st season on ABC. It seems to be a little overvalued right now and I expect it to come back down to earth a little bit.

2017 Ad Rate: $179,807
2018-19 Prediction: $162,491

The Bachelor
The Bachelor has historically been somewhat undervalued, but it was still one of ABC’s highest-priced shows last season. I don’t see it obtaining the heights of The Good Doctor or American Idol, but it should beat out Dancing With The Stars.

2017 Ad Rate: $140,343
2018-19 Prediction: $138,812

Summer Renew/Cancel, Week 5: The Out(For Trash)post

It's been awhile since the last Summer Renew/Cancel post, but with a new premiere and some additional ratings datapoints, it's time for a new edition! Stay tuned for my initial analysis of The Outpost, plus some updates.

Certain to be Canceled:
Reverie (0.5, 0.4-0.6)

Likely to be Canceled:
Take Two (0.5, 0.4-0.5)

Leans Cancellation:
Marlon (0.6, 0.6-0.7)
The Outpost (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Salvation (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Leans Renewal:
N/A

Likely to be Renewed:
N/A

Certain to be Renewed:
N/A

Fate Determined:
Code Black (Canceled)
Elementary (Renewed)
Quantico (Canceled)
Shades of Blue (Final Season)
The 100 (Renewed)

Yet to Premiere:
Trial & Error (July 2018)
Burden of Truth (July 2018)


The Outpost: The CW's newest drama started with an awful 0.1, the lowest result you can get without attaining the mythical Blutarsky rating. Starting that low would usually mean an automatic trip to a certain cancellation prediction. However, The Outpost is a dirt-cheap international co-production, meaning that it costs the CW very little to air it. It's in a similar situation as CBS's Ransom, which is still alive despite terrible ratings. Also, its week two rating, a 0.2, isn't even too bad for the CW in Summer. I don't think the Outpost is coming back, but I'm not ruling it out yet. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Take Two: I may have been a little quick to call this comedy-drama a dead show walking. Sure, it's a big flop that has hit 0.4 multiple times. However, with a recent schedule tweak, ABC is showing signs that they actually care about the show, giving it a timeslot upgrade by moving it out of 10 PM and into 8 PM for this week. Even if this is just a one-week test, it makes it clear that ABC is considering renewing the show and wants to see if it's worth it. The timeslot shakeup probably won't make much of a difference, but it's enough for me to upgrade this show to a LIKELY CANCELLATION, with another upgrade a possibility if it shows signs of life.

Marlon: NBC's sophomore sitcom wrapped its season last week, hitting its ninth straight 0.6. A 0.6 isn't a number to really be proud of, but it could be worse. I certainly was expecting worse, and the show's stability really impressed me, even if the numbers aren't strong. I still don't see much incentive for a third season on NBC's part, but it hasn't done anything to make me more certain of its cancellation since it premiered, and it continues to LEAN CANCELLATION.

What do you think of these predictions? What do you think about the scripted summer slate? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the Poll of the Week!

Wednesday Cable Ratings 7/18/18: Suits Returns Lower, Young & Hungry Collapses to Embarrassing Levels

Below are the Top 25 programs on cable on Wednesday, 7/18/18. Items of note include the season premiere of Suits on USA, the return of Full Frontal on TBS, and Yellowstone on Paramount.
(Click the names of the shows written in teal or blue to be taken to their pages in the TV Ratings Guide Cable Database.)
Show
Network
18-49 Viewers
Viewers (mil.)
Black Ink Crew ChicagoVH10.51.03
Real Housewives of New YorkBravo0.461.36
Dr. Pimple PopperTLC0.461.83
The Rachel Maddow ShowMSNBC0.363.14
CatfishMTV0.360.69
Full Frontal with Samantha BeeTBS0.321.03
Catfish: TrollsMTV0.310.57
YellowstoneParamount0.311.89
House HuntersHGTV0.311.58
Property Brothers: Buy & SellHGTV0.31.59
House Hunters InternationalHGTV0.31.59
Hip Hop SquaresVH10.290.64
Hip Hop SquaresVH10.290.62
The Daily ShowComedy Central0.280.89
SuitsUSA0.281.27
Ozzy & Jack's World DetourA&E0.270.77
HannityFox News0.273.14
The Last WordMSNBC0.262.69
Reasonable DoubtInvest. Discovery0.250.94
Tucker Carlson TonightFox News0.252.64
The Ingraham AngleFox News0.252.65
Anderson Cooper 360CNN0.241.21
Cuomo Prime TimeCNN0.241.19
Misfit GarageDiscovery0.240.88
Pardon the InterruptionESPN0.230.66




Highlighs Below the Chart:


Erin Burnett OutFrontCNN0.221.00
Conan Comic-Con SpecialTBS0.20.50
Queen SugarOWN0.191.01
The Lead with Jake TapperCNN0.181.08
ColonyUSA0.160.60
SixHistory0.150.63
Deadline: White HouseMSNBC0.141.50
Morning JoeMSNBC0.141.20
WolfCNN0.140.85
At This HourCNN0.130.75
Big City GreensDisney0.090.59
Velshi & RuhleMSNBC0.090.96
Bug JuiceDisney0.090.42
Young & HungryFreeform0.080.22
Young & HungryFreeform0.080.21

Wednesday TV Ratings 7/18/18: Code Black Down for Series Finale, ESPYs Weak

Final numbers to come.
Time
Show
18-49 Ratings
Viewers (mil)
Channel
8 PMBig Brother1.4/75.21CBS

MasterChef1.0/53.54Fox

The 2018 ESPYs0.9/53.94ABC

Ellen's Game of Games (R)0.7/44.03NBC

Girl Got Game0.1/10.47The CW
9 PMGordon Ramsay's 24 Hours To Hell & Back1.0/53.25Fox

TKO: Total Knock Out0.8/43.43CBS

World of Dance (R)0.5/32.40NBC

The Originals0.2/10.68The CW
10 PMCode Black (Series Finale)0.7/45.33CBS

Reverie0.4/21.68NBC