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FOX Renew/Cancel: Last Man On Earth, Gotham Safe for Now

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Welcome to the latest FOX Renew/Cancel post! As always, I'll provide my predictions table and reasoning behind some of the predictions. Let us know what you think in the comments below!

The Table


Gotham and The Last Man On Earth
So far, Gotham's A18-49 Live + Same Day average rating is 83% of the FOX's average rating. Its ad rate reported by Variety is 80% of FOX's average ad rate. While the ad rates reported are estimates and aren't the only part that goes into renew/cancel decisions, comparing the rates to the ratings have rendered accurate results for longer-running shows that are doing just-OK at best in the ratings. For now, I'm predicting that if Gotham stays at or above 80% of FOX's average, it should be safe.

Similarly, The Last Man On Earth is currently rating at 78% of FOX's average, with an ad rate at 73% of the average. It also doesn't hurt that it's been remarkably steady year-to-year for a serialized show so far. I'm predicting a renewal for The Last Man On Earth and Gotham right now, though the difference between the two percentages is too small to be bumped up to a certain renewal.

The Mick
With so many shows predicted as a renewal, The Mick has found itself in a tough situation. On one hand, New Girl is ending and the future isn't looking bright for Brooklyn Nine-Nine, and FOX may not want to cancel three comedies. Plus, promotion indicates that they are really behind the show. Ultimately, I think this will come down to three factors: a) how it does the rest of the season; b) how The Last Man On Earth does; and c) how LA to Vegas does. I assume at least one or two of those three shows will be renewed.

The Exorcist
Most were expecting a cancelation for The Exorcist last season, though we correctly predicted its renewal. It's a little tougher to argue for a renewal this time around though; it's currently rating at 40% of FOX's average, and is no longer in a position where it looks strong compared to previous time slot occupants. With a plethora of new dramas entering FOX's midseason schedule, there are plenty of shows competing for the Friday at 9pm time slot; with a still-potent Hell's Kitchen as a lead-in, it may be tough for The Exorcist to squeak by again. Of course, we have no knowledge of its streaming numbers or any potential international sales, but from what we do have, it isn't looking good.