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ABC Renew/Cancel - October 25: Kevin Probably Saves the World is Likely to be Renewed

This week Ten Days in the Valley, which was predicted certain to be canceled, has been pulled from the schedule, making it de-facto canceled. The remaining episodes will be burned off on Saturdays starting in December, with two episodes airing a week. Also this week, one show has moved categories, with its fate going from certain to likely.


Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Inhumans (0.7, 0.4-0.9)
The Mayor (1.0, 0.8-1.2)

Toss-Up

Likely to be Renewed
Designated Survivor (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.8, 0.7-1.0)
Once Upon a Time (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Speechless (1.2, 1.1-1.4)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.4, 1.3-1.6)
Black-ish (1.3, 1.1-1.5)
The Good Doctor (2.0, 1.8-2.2)
Grey's Anatomy (2.1, 1.8-2.3)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.0, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
The Middle (FINAL SEASON)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Scandal (FINAL SEASON)
Ten Days in the Valley (DE-FACTO CANCELED)


Kevin Probably Saves the World: Dropping to 0.7 this week, Kevin is now at a level that I would consider to be low, but not too low, for ABC drama. It isn't far beneath Designated Survivor and How to Get Away with Murder, and while it will likely fall a bit more than those two since it's a new show, I don't think it will fall that much, since it has pretty much stabilized so far. It's certainly no lock for a renewal, but with how ABC has struggled on Tuesdays at 10:00, I'm leaning enough in the renewal direction for it to be "likely to be renewed".

Designated Survivor: After a second consecutive week of dropping a tenth, I have decided to downgrade Designated Survivor from "certain to be renewed" to "likely to be renewed". While I don't think that it dropping means cancelation (especially since this week faced World Series competition), it is concerning enough to draw back from certainty. If viewers are abandoning Designated Survivor, as these most recent ratings indicate, and that continues, then Designated Survivor could end up going the other way. However, for now, renewal is still much more likely than cancelation.

Once Upon a Time: After dropping to a 0.5 this week, how is Once Upon a Time still "likely to be renewed"? The answer is simple, it makes a lot of money for ABC elsewhere. A deal with Netflix that the show has is reportedly huge (in the eight figure range) as was revealed with its most recent renewal (by The Hollywood Reporter). With a deal this good, I don't expect Once Upon a Time to be going anywhere anytime soon.

Inhumans: ABC's other Friday night drama went from unsuccessful to disaster this week, hitting a 0.4. It is unclear if Marvel would push for a renewal here, as they apparently did for Agents of SHIELD last year. Other Marvel project Agent Carter got a second season, but its ratings were fairly decent in season one, while Inhumans is more on par with season two level Agent Carter ratings. The chances for Inhumans are very slim, and the only reason I haven't downgraded it is just in case Marvel steps in, but I doubt that will happen.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!