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ABC Renew/Cancel - October 20: Inhumans is Likely to be Canceled

It's week four of ABC renew/cancel, and this week I have cleared out the toss-up category, as both shows that were in that category (Inhumans and Kevin) have given me enough now to predict one way or another.


Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Ten Days in the Valley (0.4, 0.4-0.5)

Likely to be Canceled
Inhumans (0.8, 0.6-0.9)
The Mayor (1.0, 0.8-1.2)

Toss-Up

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.1-1.4)
Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.9, 0.8-1.0)
Once Upon a Time (0.7, 0.7-0.7)
Speechless (1.2, 1.1-1.4)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.6)
Black-ish (1.3, 1.1-1.5)
Designated Survivor (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Good Doctor (2.1, 2.0-2.2)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 2.1-2.3)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.0, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
The Middle (FINAL SEASON)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Scandal (FINAL SEASON)


Inhumans: After ticking down to 0.6 this week while its lead-in remained steady, I have decided to move Inhumans to likely to be canceled. It started out decently for Friday nights, but has lost 33% of its audience since then, and this is only episode four, and week three. Its chance at renewal now depends on if it stays steady from here and how much Marvel cares about it.

Kevin Probably Saves the World: Staying steady at 0.8 while its lead-in took a dip from 1.0 to 0.8, Kevin did a great job of proving itself this week. In week three, it seems to be settling at a level that's decent for ABC drama, in a timeslot where many shows have been absolute failures. Because of this, I am predicting that Kevin will return next season.

The Mayor: It already wasn't looking great, but another two-tenth drop for The Mayor made its chances even worse. A 0.8 for an ABC comedy in week three really isn't promising, and The Mayor looks like it has further declining ahead of it.

Fresh Off the Boat: With The Mayor's chances worsening, the chances that ABC will cancel a veteran comedy (Speechless and Fresh Off the Boat being the most vulnerable of which) decrease, and Fresh Off the Boat staying steady this week while The Middle ticked down a tenth put it a little farther ahead of Speechless than it was before. I don't want to call it certain to be renewed, at least not yet, but I would consider it to be the most safe in the likely to be renewed category.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!