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Predicting the 2017-18 Ratings: NBC



I've made my 18-49 rating predictions for ABC and Fox, now it's the peacock network's turn. Here is how I expect the new and returning scripted shows to perform.


Monday

Whoops. Wrong Brave. 

Time
Show
18-49 Average
 Prediction
Last Season’s Average
Predicted Trend
10:00pm
The Brave
1.16
N/A
N/A

The big 5 networks tend to latch on to a concept for new shows each year. Last year, it was time-travel shows (Making History, Time After Time, Timeless, etc). This year, the networks are putting their money on military dramas (The Brave, Valor, SWAT). Out of all the new military shows, The Brave is in the best position The series will get a strong lead-in from The Voice and it should mesh well with the old-skewing reality program given its subject matter. While it should do well, I'm not expecting jaw-dropping numbers. As of now, the series has less than 900 followers (though it is doing okay on Facebook) and the glut of military shows may not help it either. Overall, a raw average in-line with year-ago Timeless seems about right.


Tuesday




Time
Show
18-49 Average
 Prediction
Last Season’s Average
Predicted Trend
9:00pm
This Is Us
2.46
2.68
-8%
10:00pm
Law & Order: True Crime
1.28
N/A
N/A


This Is Us was last season's breakout hit. The finale garnered a season high and it is returning in the same timeslot. I don't expect the show to continue hitting highs, but I do expect a very small drop and a very strong start. (Note: This average does not include the Superbowl Episode).

At 10, NBC will air Law & Order: True Crime, the latest Dick Wolf show to make its way to the peacock network's line-up. The other three shows that have aired after This Is Us (Trial & Error, Chicago Justice, Chicago Fire) have had mixed to incredibly awful retention. Yes, those shows were very different in tone from the powerhouse drama, but so is True Crime. There is still a good amount of interest in old murder cases (The People V OJ averaged a strong 1.3 in the 18-49 ratings on FX), so people will likely tune in. Ultimately, I expect the show to pull in solid numbers for its 8-episode run, but retention will look ugly.


Wednesday


Time
Show
18-49 Average
 Prediction
Last Season’s Average
Predicted Trend
8:00pm
The Blacklist
0.83
0.99
-16%
9:00pm
Law & Order: SVU
1.29
1.34
-4%
10:00pm
Chicago PD
1.15
1.37
-16%

The Blacklist averaged a mediocre 0.99 last year. But, after delayed viewing, the series jumped to a 2.0. Airing at an earlier time may lead to audiences watching it live instead of putting it on their DVR. It should have a much lower drop than past seasons.


SVU had an ugly 17% drop last year despite being a steady show. Since Criminal Minds is leaving the slot, I think it will have a better trend. It's usually a fairly steady show and it should thrive without having to face compatible competition.

On the other hand, Chicago PD now has to face Minds head-on. That will probably lead to a slightly larger drop than last year, but it will still remain a strong player.


Thursday





Time
Show
18-49 Average
 Prediction
Last Season’s Average
Predicted Trend
8:00pm
Superstore
0.97
1.13
-14%
8:30pm
The Good Place
0.86
1.35
-36%
9:00pm
Will & Grace
1.32
N/A
N/A
9:30pm
Great News
0.85
0.79
+8%
10:00pm
Chicago Fire
1.24
1.52
-18%

Superstore will be airing in the same timeslot for a second year, meaning it will face the same circumstances as its sophomore season. Despite that, I'm not expecting it to stay steady given how low it went during the spring months, but it should have a decent hold.

The Good Place is returning after an 8-month break and it's heavily serialized. Because of these factors, it'll be an uphill battle for the sophomore series. The fact that it's on Netflix might help it gain more viewers, but I'm not holding out hope. Past serialized comedies (Last Man on Earth, Galavant) have had brutal drops in their second years and this one probably won't buck the trend.

Will & Grace is one of the many revivals this year, so it'll definitely start strong because of nostalgia and initial interest. After the first couple weeks, it'll probably only be two or three tenths ahead of the 8 pm comedies and it won't look very impressive. Still, it will easily be NBC's highest-rated comedy.

Great News was a huge flop last year so it'll be easy for it to grow a bit since it has a more compatible lead-in. But, once Will & Grace settles, it'll probably be flirting with its anemic season one numbers.

Chicago Fire will be going from airing after This Is Us to airing after Great News. It doesn't get much worse than that. I'm not expecting it to collapse, but it will have its worst trend to date.


Friday



Time
Show
18-49 Average
 Prediction
Last Season’s Average
Predicted Trend
8:00pm
Blindspot
0.80
1.03
-22%

 Despite a very strong freshman season, the Jaimie Alexander drama had a brutal (as expected) drop in season 2. The third season will be self-starting on Friday nights. While I do expect a sizable drop, I don't think it'll be as brutal as last year. Old-skewing programs tend to do well on Fridays and it won't have any compatible shows airing against it.



What do you think of these predictions? Leave your personal predictions & thoughts in the comments below.