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FOX Renew/Cancel: A Change in Heart on Rosewood

Welcome to the latest edition of FOX Renew/Cancel! As May approaches, it's time to take a closer look into where shows stand.

The Real and Relative Ad Rates

ShowAd RateRELATIVE
Bob's Burgers6501953
The Simpsons155838126
Son of Zorn126053102
Family Guy129428105
The Last Man On Earth10189583
Gotham12268099
Lucifer11106390
Brooklyn Nine-Nine10180382
New Girl10232983
Scream Queens12143898
Lethal Weapon164853134
Empire442413358
Rosewood7188158
Pitch9572878
Hell's Kitchen7756163
The Exorcist5055141
Making History8103566
24: Legacy 138720112
APB11512893
The Mick10357384
Bones9645978
Shots Fired140132113
Star240572195
Prison Break131766107
Kicking and Screaming 10251683
MasterChef Junior8660970
Sleepy Hollow5686046


The (Relative) Ratings



The Table


Analysis
Of Rosewood's final 5 episodes, 4 of its ratings were 0.5s, while one was a 0.6. It's down 51% in raw ratings year-to-year, and if it's renewed, chances are it's getting two full seasons. We've seen through Hell's Kitchen that shows that are presumably cheaper can garner a higher ad rate and get higher ratings in that time slot. The main thing it has going for it is the fact that it repeats well, consistently barely below where its originals rate.

I was also thinking about how the ad rates have typically better described shows that are a little bit older, and should apply more to Sleepy Hollow or New Girl than to Rosewood. It incorrectly predicted a renewal of The Mysteries of Laura and Undateable last season.

A possibility is they shift it to Fridays at 9pm and air Hell's Kitchen before it, but something about the thought of Rosewood airing two more full seasons seems unrealistic to me. Of course, it's all down to the profits, but is it really making one, and can it make one in the future?

Also, given the DVR numbers, it probably doesn't have that great of a C3 or C7 bump, and FOX is the first network to tell you that they look into that. Now, hopefully I'm not having a little crisis as we head into the month of May, but right now it's hard to justify a renewal without knowing more.

Of course, this prediction could change. I think the key thing that will help me decide is seeing how Lucifer repeats there next week.

Also, there's Shots Fired to discuss. While I initially predicted a likely renewal, the ratings are pretty low, especially given the time slot. Since it is a limited series, it does have a chance of being rebooted and maybe seeing a summer 2018 run, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stay tuned to see if it ticks up in the ratings and if I have a positive change in heart.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!