New Show Hit/Miss Spring 2017 - Taken
What May Cause Taken to be a Hit?
The Voice lead-in
NBC gave this show the second-best lead-in it could get: the Monday editions of The Voice. Revolution, The Blacklist, and Blindspot all had strong first seasons here. NBC is definitely giving this show a real chance.
Success of film
A successful film doesn't necessarily mean a successful TV series, but Taken's success in the theaters lead to sequels, similar to how Lethal Weapon got multiple sequels, and Lethal Weapon turned out to be a successful TV series.
Scorpion isn't really a show to worry about going up against, but that competition from CBS is certainly stronger than the competition Taken will face from ABC with Quantico. And anyway, only about half of Taken's episodes will compete with Scorpion episodes anyway.
What May Cause Taken to be a Miss for NBC?
General lack of success for film-based TV series
TV has tried movies before. Training Day, About a Boy, Bad Teacher, Limitless, Minority Report, Rush Hour, and Taxi Brooklyn were all based on films, and all were canceled after one season except Training Day, which is currently still airing but certain to be canceled, and About a Boy, which failed in season two. Lethal Weapon is a rare occurrence. So, it is more likely that Taken fails than succeeds.
NBC doesn't need it
If Taken were to perform just decently, would NBC even renew it? Things are going well at the network currently, and they have limited room for scripted series, and with how Smash, Revolution, and Blindspot fell when moved away from Mondays, NBC would see little reason to renew Taken.
Not a procedural
It seems that what works best on NBC is procedurals. All of their successful dramas aside from This is Us are procedurals. The only dramas that NBC renewed for this season that don't have a case-of-the-week format are Grimm, for a final season, and decent performer Shades of Blue, which has a police theme. So, Taken may not be on-brand enough to succeed on NBC.
What to Expect for Taken?
I think that the biggest factor here is the lack of success for film-based TV series, though airing after The Voice will inflate Taken's ratings.
Which factors do you think will cause Taken to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments! And, if you haven't already, vote on the rating it gets for its premiere!