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FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: The Last Man On Earth Upgraded by No Merit of its Own


Welcome to the latest edition of FOX Renew/Cancel Watch. March is right around the corner, and early renewals have already started to come in, with Lucifer, The Mick, Star, and Lethal Weapon both picked up for another season. But what about the rest of the shows? Time to look at the updated relative ratings and the chart, as well as a reminder of their targets.

Targets
This is a list of shows with their relative percentage of FOX's average ad rate. Ad rates sourced from Variety. In the recent past, I've found that marginally-rated bubble veteran shows (3+ seasons) tended to get canceled if they were below that number and renewed if they are above them.
ShowAd RateRELATIVE
Bob's Burgers6501953
The Simpsons155838126
Son of Zorn126053102
Family Guy129428105
The Last Man On Earth10189583
Gotham12268099
Lucifer11106390
Brooklyn Nine-Nine10180382
New Girl10232983
Scream Queens12143898
Lethal Weapon164853134
Empire442413358
Rosewood7188158
Pitch9572878
Hell's Kitchen7756163
The Exorcist5055141
Making History8103566
24: Legacy 138720112
APB11512893
The Mick10357384
Bones9645978
Shots Fired140132113
Star240572195
Prison Break131766107
Kicking and Screaming 10251683
MasterChef Junior8660970
Sleepy Hollow5686046


Relative Ratings
Here are the updated relative ratings. This table is updated live, so if you're viewing this in May and the numbers don't match up with the analysis, that's why.


And now, the table.



Changes from Last Time
-Lucifer, The Mick, Lethal Weapon, and Star added to the Renewed column
-APB plummets from Likely Renewal to Likely Cancelation
-24: Legacy downgraded from Likely Renewal to Leans Renewal
-The Last Man On Earth upgraded from Leans Cancelation to 'Watching

How Could The Last Man On Earth Be Upgraded Without Even Airing?
Good question. The latest ratings saw shows like 24: Legacy and APB fall considerably, as well as minor downticks for the Friday dramas and The Mick. With The Last Man On Earth's average staying steady and FOX's league average falling, the post-apocalyptic sitcom benefitted to the point where it is now exactly at its target. Usually that's enough to put a show in the Leans Renewal category, but like Sleepy Hollow, I have a hard time believing that future ratings will rise, making that path to renewal tougher. It's hard to say how The Last Man On Earth will return. If it's down as much as the league average, and nothing more, then it should be safe.

On APB
APB had a very promising start, matching 24: Legacy's 1.5 A18-49 L+SD rating for its premiere. Now, I know that the networks sell ads based on C3 and C7, but this is the data that's publically available. Unfortunately for the new police procedural, it fell to a 1.0 the week after its premiere, and down to a 0.8 the week after that. That's already below what Lucifer was doing in the time period, below the Wednesday dramas and Gotham as well, and barely edging out Bones. Unless it rises I can't see this one coming back. The 94 score in the embedded relative ratings widget is misleading, and will more than likely decline considerably in the upcoming weeks as the premiere's rating counts for an increasingly smaller portion of the average.