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CW Renew/Cancel: Assessing the Situation and Midseason Prospects


Hello peeps! Welcome to CW Renew/Cancel's first installment of 2017. It's time to access the situation for the CW shows. This leads to a downgrade to a toss up for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, and it's time we go by what the numbers tell us.


Final Season
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Watching

Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
Reign
Frequency

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
No Tomorrow



DC’s Legends of Tomorrow





The Flash





Jane the Virgin





Supergirl





Supernatural

The raw ratings for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend clearly indicate that it is inching towards cancelation. It's also the lowest rated show on broadcast television. However, it's getting those ratings on a Friday. It's also one of the shows that is in the race towards hitting the coveted 0.0 demographic, which is called the Blutarsky. Yes, that is a reference to one of the National Lampoon movies.

This week it is airing back to back new episodes. Sounds like a burnoff, but only time will tell whether this will change the situation.

It may be in the Watching column, but I am still leaning towards renewal.

In addition to Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, No Tomorrow and Frequency have joined the race towards hitting a 0.0 in the A18-49 demographic, after recent ratings results show a rounded 0.2. The recent ratings for the past two weeks of No Tomorrow in the unrounded ratings are 0.160 and 0.174. Frequency's first episode without Arrow hit a 0.196, despite hitting a 0.2 with Arrow before taking a hiatus. Both freshman shows are still certain to be canceled, but the situation is getting dire.

With Reign and The Vampire Diaries hitting their final seasons this season, is this the season to expect a CW bloodbath? Here are the prognoses for the four undetermined midseason shows.

1. The Originals
Analysis: The Vampire Diaries spin-off hit a 0.3 for its previous season finale. With the trajectory of their season finales, the rating that it gets for the previous season finale becomes the season high for its subsequent season. This season, it gets to self-start at the Friday 8pm time slot, followed by the final season of Reign.

Prognosis: The prognosis is grim for the spinoff. If The Vampire Diaries got the final season treatment with an average of a 0.46 for the previous season, why should The Originals and its previous season's average of a 0.38 A18-49 rating get renewed? The first season of The Originals averaged a 0.9 A18-49 rating, with the first season finale scoring a 0.8. Season two's season high is a 0.7, and declined 34.75 percent to average a 0.59, with the season finale scoring a 0.5. The previous season of The Originals declined another 36.26 percent to average a 0.38, with a season high of a 0.5, and the season finale scoring a 0.3. If this upcoming season's ratings decline another 35 percent, that would put it's ratings average at a 0.247. That's unacceptable for WB produced shows. In addition, the show is filmed in Atlanta and has already cut cast members in order to cut budgets. This means that the show is expensive to produce. The show will also finish its fourth season with 79 episodes, enough to have a decent streaming package. Going with the trend of CW shows getting canceled or final season'd with four seasons totaling 70 episodes, I say that this one is a goner.

2. Riverdale
Analysis: As the sole midseason newbie, the bar for survival has been considerably lowered by the poor ratings performances of both No Tomorrow and Frequency. As part of utilizing the promotion, the show has been paired with Supernatural as a lead-in.

Prognosis: I don't think the CW will risk PR backlash by canceling their entire rookie slate. It needs to do a little better than the rest of the likely low rated midseason shows in order to get a second season. We already have a positive TVLine review to kick off the critical buzz that the show has. Already, its prognosis sounds promising. I just need to see the numbers for the first few episodes in order to look at its future more closely.

3. iZombie
Analysis: From the beginning, iZombie has been given the scheduling treatment of being a limited series despite not being promoted as such. For each season, the show has gotten less than 22 episodes per season. The first season premiered in midseason with 13 episodes. Season two had 19 episodes after receiving a backorder of only 6 episodes, instead of the typical back 9. It prompted me to move it all the way down to certain cancelation territory based on past network actions, which was one of the biggest misses in my Renew/Cancel record last season. This upcoming season, which premieres April 4, will consist of 13 episodes, with at least half of the season airing into summer (late June, early July) after The Flash concludes its third season unless the CW decides to air back to back episodes.

Prognosis: iZombie will be in its third season, and if you are airing on the CW, you're basically likely to get a fourth season. Let's look at this from a numbers standpoint. The first season averaged a 0.65 A18-49 rating. The second season averaged a 0.53, down 19.04 percent. A 20 percent decline would put its expected third season average at a 0.424. With the newbies and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend dragging down the CW average, that projected ratings average would look pretty good in comparison for renewal even for summer standards, especially since the rest of the CW shows sans Jane the Virgin have declined in the ratings. Either way, I expect the show to return next season.

4. The 100
Analysis: Like iZombie, the show debuted in midseason and is also a limited series. All of its seasons so far have gotten less than 22 episodes. The first season had 13 episodes, the second and third seasons had 16 episodes each, and the upcoming fourth season will consist of 13 episodes. It premieres February 1. The first two seasons had Arrow as a lead-in, then moved to Thursdays for its third season to pair with DC's Legends of Tomorrow. The upcoming fourth season will get its original Arrow lead in back.

Prognosis: This one is a wildcard. It will be in its fourth season, but it won't have 70 episodes. The one advantage that it has over The Originals is that its not airing its fourth season on Friday. Let's look at the numbers. Season one averaged a 0.6 rating. Then season 2 scored a 0.52, down only 2.36 percent according to TVSeriesFinale. That happened at a ratings climate where the CW was up in the ratings. Season 3 declined 8 percent to score a 0.48 A18-49 rating. Could it be mostly steady for its return? Here's the thing. Arrow has declined significantly from the previous season, down 21.63 percent to be exact. With a decreased lead-in, it's unlikely that The 100 would retain similar ratings to season 3. I will use a 15-20 percent decline for the show. A 15 percent decline would put the show at a 0.424, and a 20 percent decline would put it at a 0.384. That's slightly above The Vampire Diaries's current ratings average of a 0.37. However, a 10 percent decline would put it at a 0.432, which looks better than the 15-20 percent decline. If the ratings average score between a 0.384 and a 0.432, I think it could be looking at a final season next season. However, if it scores below that range, I don't think it will be renewed. I'll look at the numbers more closely by late March to make an up or down call.

There you have it. My prognoses of the midseason shows are now in writing. Feel free to debate in the comments below.