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ABC: When Will That Veteran End?

ABC, quite frankly, has not had a good season when it comes to newbies in 2015-16. They renewed have gone fractional or near fractional. Meanwhile, ABC currently has three scripted shows that premiered outside of this decade, and all three of them were in their Top 5 scripted shows for the season. So while ABC has some promising veterans to boast, they're having trouble finding new ones. What will happen when they inevitably get too expensive to continue? It's going to happen sooner or later. ABC needs to find replacements. This question is: how long can they take before they adequately find one? Let's take a look into how many seasons realistically these veterans have left.
Quantico, and Dr Ken joined it, as did marginal players The Catch and The Real O'Neals, but everything, including these four,

Grey's Anatomy
Remember having "How to Save a Life" by The Fray stuck in your head? Pretty long time ago when you think about it, right? 2005 to be exact, and they used the song to promote early-day Grey's Anatomy, which premiered March 27 of that year (happy birthday Grey's!). The band hasn't had a top 40 hit since 2009, if that ages Grey's any more. Oh, and it's also ABC's highest rated drama.

Shonda Rhimes, who created the show long before she became a household name, has said she has no plans on ending Grey's Anatomy. Why would she, really? It's not averaging 9.x's like it used to, but nothing is. I don't see it collapsing anytime soon, and I think that they can always keep the storylines fresh. People keep returning for more. They could decide to end it after, say, 15 seasons, but at this rate it could even rival Law & Order (20 seasons) for the longest-running prime time drama ever. It'll end when Shonda says it'll end.

Modern Family
Not all of ABC's longest-running scripted shows are dramas. Modern Family, which premiered on September 23, 2009, was ABC's #1 comedy in its first season and never lost the title. The only comedy episodes ever to beat the same-week Modern Family episodes were the first couple of Cougar Town, and that flamed out relatively quickly. However, just because Modern Family remains ABC's #1 comedy doesn't mean it'll definitely be on for years to come. It appears that the series got "only" 22 episodes this season, as opposed for the 24 given to the rest of the Wednesday comedies + Fresh Off The Boat (which gets less than half the ratings of Modern Family). That most likely has to do with expenses--Modern Family is comprised of a large ensemble cast, and all but one have become household names since the premiere due to awards and high ratings. The one that hasn't been a household name through Modern Family? Yeah, he was the big star that ABC was able to promote the show with (Ed O'Neill from Married with Children). So basically, they're all big stars. Modern Family is also a huge player in syndication, except that ABC makes none of that money (distributor 20th Century Fox does). Ratings are down 20% year-to-year, and sooner or later it'll fall down to earth into the high 1s-low 2s. Modern Family will have a great legacy for years to come, but I don't think it has much left in the tank. Even Seinfeld ended after 9 seasons when technically they could have kept it going for many more years. Unless it comes to the point where ABC forces themselves to  retire many veterans in two seasons, I think that's all we are getting out of Modern Family. A 10th is possible, but it could very easily be using money at that point and only be sticking around for the sake of helping another show.

The Middle
The Middle premiered on September 30, 2009, right before Modern Family's second episode. They're essentially the same age. The Middle is currently on a better track record than Modern Family in terms of year-to-year declines, but like Modern Family, ABC isn't making any money off of The Middle's syndication (which is also a much smaller player in that respect than Modern Family). We know it's getting next season, and then assuming that ratings are still good, it's a question of if the Hecks will sign on for a ninth season. It's significantly less expensive than Modern Family (five regulars and a fairly small supporting cast, as opposed to 12 regulars and a supporting cast), so that shouldn't be the problem of it ending. I think it'll end after nine seasons, just like Patricia Heaton's other hit comedy (Everybody Loves Raymond), and extending it's run past 2000s ABC comedy According to Jim's. Could The Middle and Modern Family end the same season? I think it's entirely possible and will make for a bittersweet exits to the shows which revitalized ABC Wednesdays. But once again, we'll get a better picture once we see ratings and if it's even more necessary to retire other veterans.

Wrap-up
Right now, ABC should worry about fixing problem slots that have been made as a result of failing new shows. But they also need to start thinking about a future without their hit veterans Grey's Anatomy, Modern Family, and The Middle. It may be a while until ABC finds a show in the caliber of Modern Family and Grey's Anatomy, and The Middle is the little engine that could. All are clear staples to ABC's schedule. How do you think ABC should go about the big picture? Let me know in the comments below!

ABC Renew/Cancel September 30: Initial Predictions for Last Man Standing, Once Upon a Time, Secrets & Lies, and More


This week, ABC premiered five shows: Last Man Standing, Dr. Ken, Once Upon a Time, Secrets & Lies, and Quantico. Also, week two for some shows gave us an idea of where they will end up. So, let's get to my predictions!


Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Notorious (1.1, 1.1-1.1)

Likely to be Canceled
Secrets & Lies (1.0)

Toss-Up
Agents of SHIELD (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
Dr. Ken (0.9)
Once Upon a Time (1.2)
Quantico (1.0)

Likely to be Renewed
Last Man Standing (1.1)
Modern Family (2.5, 2.3-2.6)

Certain to be Renewed
Black-ish (1.8, 1.6-2.0)
Designated Survivor (2.0, 1.8-2.2)
The Goldbergs (2.0, 1.9-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.5, 2.4-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.4, 1.3-1.4)
Speechless (1.9, 1.8-2.0)


Last Man Standing: In its season premiere, Last Man Standing matched the previous season's premiere. That seems to indicate that it is in a better position than it was last season, and last season it got renewed, so renewal should be certain. The thing is, last year Last Man Standing grew from its premiere rating, which is rare. So, I would say that Last Man Standing is probably going to be about as strong this season as it was last.

Secrets & Lies: After a long time off, Secrets & Lies returned to a 1,0, tying Quantico for the second lowest season premiere rating on ABC so far this fall, only behind Dr. Ken. Additionally, Quantico and Dr. Ken have advantages that Secrets & Lies doesn't in terms of syndication potential (either Quantico or Dr. Ken would need two more seasons, Secrets & Lies would need seven more), and Dr. Ken airs on Friday, so it is expected to be lower. It seems that Secrets & Lies is farther down on the network totem pole than every show except new series Notorious, which premiered a tenth higher with a large lead-in.

Once Upon a Time: Despite a premiere higher than Last Man Standing's, Once Upon a Time is a toss-up. There are two reasons for this, one is that Last Man Standing airs on a lesser viewed night, and the second is that a multi-camera sitcom must be much cheaper to produce than a fantasy drama. This 1.2 it earned matches many of the ratings that Once Upon a Time earned last spring, and with the decrease that comes from fall to spring, the ratings may end up not justifying the cost. However, we do not know exactly how much it costs to make the series, and if Secrets & Lies and Quantico fall harder, it makes Once Upon a time look stronger.

Dr. Ken: The 0.9 Dr. Ken premiered to this season matches the lowest ratings it hit during its first season. This is not a good sign, However, ABC studios is behind this show, so they could push for it to reach four seasons in order to enter syndication. We should keep an eye on Dr. Ken to see if it falls, stays steady, or even rises in coming weeks.

Quantico: Similar to Dr. Ken, the rating it premiered to is not great, but it could get renewed in order to make enough episodes for syndication. Also, Quantico airs in a difficult timeslot, and if it is canceled, the question of what replaces it arises. If Quantico gets canceled, most likely Secrets & Lies will end up canceled as well, and we do not know if Once Upon a Time or midseason entry Time After Time will get renewed. This means, if Quantico is canceled, that may create one hole too many in ABC's Sunday night line-up.

Speechless: This show held up well in week two. It dropped two tenths, 10%, while its lead-in dropped 1 tenth, meaning it went from 100% retention to 95% retention, That is one small week two drop, and considering that it is performing on par with the rest of the Wednesday night line-up, I see no reason why it wouldn't get renewed.

Designated Survivor: This show didn't have as small of a drop in week two, but its four tenth, 18% drop still isn't bad, and the 1.8 it earned is higher than what its lead-in earned, in fact the same number of tenths higher than its lead-in last week. The drop it experienced wasn't at all worrying, and the show is earning solid ratings, so it certainly will be able to return.

How to Get Away with Murder: After dropping one tenth in week two, I decided to move How to Get Away with Murder up to certain to be renewed. I only didn't put it there last week because I don't Like to put shows there after one week unless it is 100% certain, and I wasn't quite there with Murder. As it didn't face a large drop this week, I now predict its renewal with certainty.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

TV Ratings 9/29/16: NBC shows lower, CBS Repeats do well, Pitch & Notorious Steady (UPDATED with Finals)


Grey's Anatomy was down a tenth this week, which was a pattern many shows this week (HTGAWM, Chicago Med, Pitch) followed. NBC had a pretty rough night, with all of its shows dropping at least a tenth. Superstore had the largest drop (.3), with The Good Place and Blacklist dropped .2. Rosewood was the only gainer this week, growing a tenth to a still-atrocious 0.8. Repeats of Big Bang, Kevin Can Wait, and Bull all did well, ranging from 0.9 to 1.4.

Finals Update: The Good Place and Superstore each adjusted up a tenth. All CBS reruns adjusted down between one and two tenths.

FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Scream Queens Is Likely To Be...

Renewed. I know, it just hit a 0.7 and under 2 million viewers. Those are abysmal numbers, there's no way around it. But according to their press release, the premiere episode was up 73% in 3-day multi-platform audience. There is an audience for Scream Queens, it just isn't on linear television. Could it become a streaming-only show? Possibly. Move to FX? Possibly. Stay on FOX? Again, possibly. If it were hitting 0.5s and not seeing such big gains, I would probably have to change my prediction, but for now, I don't think another 10-13 episodes would hurt. Here's the full table and some more analysis:

Certain Cancelation
Likely Cancelation
Watching
Likely Renewal
Certain Renewal 

Rosewood
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
New Girl
Gotham


Pitch
Scream Queens
Lucifer


The Last Man On Earth
The Exorcist
Empire



Son of Zorn
The Simpsons




Family Guy




Lethal Weapon

The Simpsons and Family Guy
Family Guy will go on as long as Seth MacFarlane wants it to, and The Simpsons may just go on until the cast physically isn't able to do it anymore. They don't rate what they used to, and nothing does. They're not going anywhere, and pretty much anyone could tell you that.

Son of Zorn and The Last Man On Earth
Son of Zorn collapsed in Week 2, all the way down to a 1.1 L+SD rating. But since it's airing with football for the next few weeks, I wouldn't get concerned just yet. Expect a quick decision due to its part-animated nature, so if it goes fractional it might go straight to likely cancellation, no time to put it in the 'Watching' category. Meanwhile, The Last Man On Earth actually premiered fractional, but Will Forte continues to get award nominations for them, and if it's still the streaming player that it was in its first season, I don't think it's leaving the schedule. But it's really starting to make other shows look good, and due to its serialized nature I can see it dipping even lower, hence the 'Watching' label.

Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Brooklyn Nine-Nine is doing better this season than I expected it to, self-starting with a 1.0 on the troubled Tuesday night. While that's not necessarily good on the surface, it's definitely the strongest linear Tuesday show for the network. It could get hurt by The Middle, but the two shows are different enough that I don't think there will be much overlap. The only thing holding it in the 'Watching' category is the fact that they don't own it. 

What's Next?
Look to see how The Exorcist holds up in Week 2. Will its prediction change? Time will tell.

Quick Note
Bob's Burgers is already renewed, hence its absence from the table.

What do you think of my predictions? Let me know, and make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments below! If you liked this article, make sure to share it with your fellow ratings friends! 

Reality Shows Renew/Cancel Watch: Initial Predictions

Reality Shows Renew/Cancel Watch: Week 1



Show
Network
Prediction
Predicted
America’s Funniest Home Videos
ABC
Premieres October 2nd

Caught On Camera With Nick Cannon (F)
NBC
Premieres October 14th

Dateline NBC (F)
NBC
😊

Dancing With The Stars
ABC
😊

Survivor
CBS
😊

20/20 (F)
ABC
😊

The Voice
NBC
😊

Hell’s Kitchen (F)
FOX
😊

Shark Tank (F)
ABC
😀

The Great Christmas Light Fight
ABC
Premieres December 2016

The Great Holiday Baking Show
ABC
Premieres December 2016


This year is starting out great for all of the reality shows. None of them are doing bad, actually, most of them are doing exceptionally well.

Dateline and 20/20: Are both very old (Friday) shows that continue to perform higher than several new series on each network. No doubt, they'll be back.

Dancing With The Stars, Survivor, and The Voice: Have continued their reign this season, all performing extremely well for each of their respective networks. Certain to be renewed.

Hell's Kitchen: Airs on a Friday, a reality show, and is performing better than several scripted Monday-Thursday shows, you will see the show again.

Shark Tank: Returned this year to its lowest rating since 2009, and a series low, of a 1.1. While this rating is not great, it is certainly an acceptable-renewable rating for a Friday show. I've started it as a 'Likely Renewal' until some more ratings come in.

What do you think of the predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

KEY:
Certain to be Renewed: 😊
Likely to be Renewed: 😀
Toss-Up: 😐
Likely to be Cancelled: 😟
Certain to be Cancelled: 😭

Most Popular Shows, According to Your Pageviews

As you may know, a defining new feature of The TV Ratings Guide is the addition of our 2016-17 TV Show Ratings Database, which provides color-coded ratings for every show in A18-49, A18-34,
M18-49, M18-34, W18-49, and W18-34. Now that we're two weeks into the season, which shows' ratings have you viewed the most? Let's take a look:

1) Sunday Night Football
2t) Son of Zorn
2t) Dancing with the Stars
4) Blindspot
5) This is Us
6) The Voice (Tuesday)
7) The Goldbergs

That's not to say you care for all shows. Here are the bottom seven shows, which are currently in a four-way tie:

-Code Black
-20/20
-MacGyver
-Hawaii 5-0
-Blue Bloods
-The Exorcist
-Once Upon a Time

Five Questions: End of September

Welcome to the latest edition of Five Questions! Please make sure to leave your answers in the comment section below!

1) Which Thursday show has disappointed the most?
2) Will Dr. Ken rebound and hit a 1.0 A18-49 L+SD rating again?
3) Is Lethal Weapon a legitimate hit, or is Empire massively propping it up?
4) Which returning show has overachieved the most?
5) Which network has the smartest business plan in terms of new shows? Which network has the best new shows?

Bonus: If you could be cast in an upcoming midseason show, which one would you pick?

Cable Renew/Cancel - Freeform, MTV, TNT, and Syfy: Predict the fate of 'Dead of Summer', and 'Young & Hungry'

Cable Renew/Cancel: Freeform, MTV, TNT, and Syfy: Fall Season Week 1


The watch is back for the Fall season!


Show 
Prediction
Young & Hungry
 😊
The Fosters
 😊
Baby Daddy
Renewed = hit
Dead of Summer
 😐
Stitchers 
 😭
Guilt
 😭

Dead of Summer, Young & Hungry: Both ended their seasons quite a while ago, so there is really nothing to predict. To me, they are the most wondered about shows with their fate left in the balance, so I've decided to post a poll to see reader's opinions on the two shows.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Show 
Prediction
Scream 
😐
Nothing new.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Show 
Prediction 
Animal Kingdom
Renewed = hit
The Last Ship
Renewed = hit
Major Crimes
😀
Murder In The First
😟
Rizzoli & Isles
Final Season
The Librarians
Renewed

Nothing new.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Show 
Prediction 
Wyonna Earp
Renewed = hit
12 Monkeys
Renewed = miss 
Dark Matter
Renewed = hit
Killjoys
Renewed = hit
Hunters
Cancelled = hit 

Nothing new.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What did you think of the predictions? Enjoying the new feature? Let us know in the comments!

KEY:
Certain to be Renewed: 😊
Likely to be Renewed: 😀
Toss-Up: 😐
Likely to be Cancelled: 😟
Certain to be Cancelled: 😭

Cable Renew/Cancel - Freeform, MTV, TNT, and Syfy: Predict the fate of 'Dead of Summer', and 'Young & Hungry'

Cable Renew/Cancel: Freeform, MTV, TNT, and Syfy: Fall Season Week 1


The watch is back for the Fall season!


Show 
Prediction
Young & Hungry
 😊
The Fosters
 😊
Baby Daddy
Renewed = hit
Dead of Summer
 😐
Stitchers 
 😭
Guilt
 😭

Dead of Summer, Young & Hungry: Both ended their seasons quite a while ago, so there is really nothing to predict. To me, they are the most wondered about shows with their fate left in the balance, so I've decided to post a poll to see reader's opinions on the two shows.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Show 
Prediction
Scream 
😐
Nothing new.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Show 
Prediction 
Animal Kingdom
Renewed = hit
The Last Ship
Renewed = hit
Major Crimes
😀
Murder In The First
😟
Rizzoli & Isles
Final Season
The Librarians
Renewed

Nothing new.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Show 
Prediction 
Wyonna Earp
Renewed = hit
12 Monkeys
Renewed = miss 
Dark Matter
Renewed = hit
Killjoys
Renewed = hit
Hunters
Cancelled = hit 

Nothing new.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What did you think of the predictions? Enjoying the new feature? Let us know in the comments!

KEY:
Certain to be Renewed: 😊
Likely to be Renewed: 😀
Toss-Up: 😐
Likely to be Cancelled: 😟
Certain to be Cancelled: 😭