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New Show Hit/Miss Winter 2017 - Star

I started this feature over the summer with the networks' fall shows, and I decided to continue it this December (and probably into January) for the winter shows. And, it will probably come back in February for the spring shows. The point of this feature is to identify the factors that could cause a show to succeed or fail, as it can be hard to know in advance.


What May Cause Star to be a Hit?

Lee Daniels
Creator of Empire, Lee Daniels, created Star, and both shows also share the fact that they are about the music industry, though from completely different perspectives, with Empire being about the people on top, and Star being about people trying to make it. The shared creator of the two shows could really help, bringing Empire fans to Star.

Premiering after Empire
Another way FOX plans to bring Empire fans to Star is by premiering the show after Empire's mid-season finale. This is the most support FOX could really give to the show, without airing it regularly after Empire.

Airing in Empire's timeslot
As Empire takes its break halfway through its season, Star will be taking over the Wednesday at 9:00 timeslot. This scheduling makes Star an easy choice for Empire fans waiting for the second half of the season, as they are used to watching TV at that time anyway.

Solid lead-in
Regularly, Star will be airing after Lethal Weapon. Unlike Rosewood last season, Lethal Weapon is showing real strength, not just timeslot benefits, and is probably one of FOX's strongest shows. This makes it a great lead-in to a new show.

People watched the trailer
Star beat out The Mick and APB in trailer views, at the time of the writing of this article. Star has approximately 580,000 views of its official trailer, while The Mick is around 540,000 and APB 510,000. While all three shows are losing out to 24: Legacy by a lot (1.87 million trailer views), it has the benefit of the 24 name, and people are not liking its trailer as much as the others'. Of people who chose to like or dislike the trailers of the shows, 68% chose like for 24: Legacy, as compared to 91% for Star and APB and 92% for The Mick. So, from the trailer stats, Star looks to be the strongest FOX winter new show.

Big names in the cast
Finally, in addition to having the name Lee Daniels behind the scenes, on screen there will be some big names as well, the names of Queen Latifah and Benjamin Bratt, who have both won and been nominated for many acting awards in the past, in addition to Queen Latifah having a successful music career.


What May Cause Star to be a Miss?

If Empire fans don't want it
Of course, when introducing another music drama, there is the risk that people are satisfied with what they have and don't want any more. Empire is still on air, so fans may be satisfied with just Empire and not need Star.

If former Empire fans don't want another Lee Daniels show
A lot of people have been leaving Empire, with its ratings down to 2s from the 4s they were at for much of the fall last year. This significant group of people may not want to watch a show from the same creator about a similar topic as a show they dropped.

Incompatibility
While Lethal Weapon definitely has the ratings to be a good lead-in, it seems quite incompatible with Star. A comedic police action drama with male leads probably won't share much audience with a music drama with female leads, so Star may not receive the benefits of the Lethal Weapon lead-in size.

Try finding it on Facebook
Even more so than most one-word titles, Star's official Facebook page is difficult to find. I had difficulty finding it back in May, and theratingsjunkie recently expressed the same. This means there is a risk of people enjoying the trailer or promotion enough, but not being able to find the show on Facebook, so they forget that it is airing.


What to Expect for Star?

I think that the post-Empire premiere and airing in Empire's timeslot will be the factors that have the greatest affect on the show. While I don't expect it to get Empire numbers, I think it will be successful enough that it grows out of its lead-in.


Which factors do you think will be most in play in causing Star to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!