New Show Hit/Miss Winter 2017 - The Mick
What May Cause The Mick to be a Hit?
Dysfunctional family comedy
Recently, not much has worked on FOX when it comes to comedy. Hangout comedies Cooper Barrett, Weird Loners, and Mulaney failed, as did animated attempts (partially and fully) with Son of Zorn and Bordertown, and family comedies (some with a lessened family element than others) with Grandfathered, The Grinder, Surviving Jack, Enlisted, and Dads. However, turning up the family element (with younger kids than, say, Surviving Jack) as well as the dysfunction, replacing parents with an aunt who is the complete opposite of her sister could be what works out for FOX.
Lead-in for premiere
FOX is giving the show a nice sampling with a football lead-in on January 1st. The large lead-in it is sure to receive will boost the ratings for the premiere and, hopefully for FOX's sake, leads to more people tuning in on Tuesdays.
FOX has been promoting the show hard. Even though I hardly watch FOX, I know how hard the network is promoting this show, as I can hear when the ads come on all the time during a football game someone in my house is watching. A large amount of people have definitely been exposed to The Mick.
Positive reception to trailer
It's not much different than Star and APB, but the reception to the trailer has been quite positive, and a little bit better than the other mid-season shows. For the other two, 91% of people who chose like or dislike chose like, while for The Mick, that number is 92%. It seems people are liking what they are seeing.
What May Cause The Mick to be a Miss for FOX?
While it will get a nice lead-in for episode 1, beyond that The Mick will be largely on its own. New Girl has been scoring 0.8s recently, and that could go down when it moves to a lesser-viewed half-hour. In addition, New Girl is a hangout comedy, while The Mick is a dysfunctional family comedy.
Tuesday night has been a major challenge for FOX since 2014. The last season they did relatively okay on the night was in 2013-14, though MasterChef Junior did help out in the winter of 2015. Attempts to launch new shows Dads, Weird Loners, Grandfathered, and The Grinder on the night completely failed, while Scream Queens performed somewhat decently in season 1, then failed on the same night in season 2. Only Brooklyn Nine-Nine, which was moved to Sundays in season 2, was able to be launched successfully on the night in recent years.
Lack of recent comedy success
FOX's troubles aren't exclusive to Tuesday night. They have been struggling with comedy for years. The Last Man on Earth was the last new comedy to make it to season 2. It premiered in spring 2015, and has been struggling recently. Before that, it was Brooklyn Nine-Nine in fall 2013. Why should The Mick be any different from the last six comedies FOX has tried?
Competition with American Housewife
While the audience for The Mick seems a lot different than the audience of ABC's family comedies, I believe that if there is one ABC comedy that would share audience with The Mick, it's American Housewife. In both shows, the woman at the lead is faced with people richer than she is. American Housewife could steal away some of The Mick's potential audience and make it hurt in the ratings.
What to Expect for The Mick?
While the advertising and lead-in for its premiere could help it, I think that the weak lead-in, Tuesday troubles, and competition will hurt it even more.
Which factors do you think will be most in play in causing The Mick to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!