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CBS Renew/Cancel: 'The Great Indoors' Likely to be Renewed

CBS

Welcome to the second edition of The TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of November 13, 2016.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
 The Big Bang Theory 
3.1 / 3.8 / 3.45
-7.5%
2
Kevin Can Wait
1.3 / 2.7 / 2.04
--
3
NCIS
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.91
-13.7%
4
Bull
1.5 / 2.2 / 1.76
--
5
The Great Indoors
1.6 / 1.9 / 1.75
--
6
Criminal Minds
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.57
-12.2%
7
2 Broke Girls
1.3 / 1.7 / 1.50
-6.6%
8
NCIS: LA
1.2 / 1.7 / 1.48
+12.1%
9
Mom
1.3 / 1.5 / 1.42
-16.2%
10
Man with a Plan
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42
--
11
Life in Pieces
1.3 / 1.5 / 1.40
-30.2%
13
NCIS: New Orleans
1.2 / 1.5 / 1.33
-23.9%
12
Scorpion
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.30
-26.5%
14
Hawaii Five-0
1.2 / 1.4 / 1.25
+9.7%
15
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.21
-2.2%
16
MacGyver
0.9 / 1.7 / 1.18
--
17
The Odd Couple
0.9 / 1.1 / 1.04
-26.2%
18
Madam Secretary
0.8 / 1.1 / 1.01
-10.0%
19
Code Black
0.7 / 1.2 / 0.98
-22.8%
20
Pure Genius
0.9 / 1.0 / 0.94
--
21
Elementary
0.6 / 0.8 / 0.73
-23.7%


After falling to a 1.3 last week, Kevin Can Wait has climbed back up to a 1.7 this week, which is on par with what it got for its first episode without the Big Bang lead-in earlier this fall. Although last Monday's episode fell on Halloween and low viewership was expected, it could've easily been a momentum killer. The sitcom is performing very nicely as the Monday night anchor of a two-hour block. It's not doing the 2.0s it did after Big Bang, but that was always a big ask and CBS knew it. Being the #2 comedy and #2 scripted series overall on the network in A18-49, having a full season order, and starring CBS sitcom alum Kevin James makes me feel confident in a season 2. It's Certain to be Renewed.

After falling 16 percent from week one to week two (1.9 to 1.6), The Great Indoors ticked up 6 percent to a 1.7 this week. That's lower than what Life In Pieces pulled in the same timeslot for its third episode last year (1.9), but it's still a fairly respectable result for what is currently the network's #3 comedy and #5 scripted show overall. We'll see how the coming weeks play out, but for now it's Likely to be Renewed.

Man with a Plan remains On the Bubble this week. Despite rising a tenth week-to-week, it's performing on the lower end of the Monday night block thus far. It's strangely following the ratings trajectory of the late Angel From Hell: 1.6 -> 1.3 -> 1.4. Arguably, these low 1s are slightly better from a year-to-year relative ratings standpoint, but it still has to make its case in the coming weeks. The Monday night comedies are in the most jeopardy come midseason, should CBS want to add Superior Donuts to the schedule, or perhaps replace two comedies with a drama. Kevin Can Wait and 2 Broke Girls shouldn't be concerned, but Man with a Plan and The Odd Couple should be.

In other news, CBS has reportedly put a TBBT spinoff/prequel series 'Sheldon' into development. Looks like we already know one comedy that's getting some sort of post-Big Bang exposure on Mondays or Thursdays next fall should it go into production by then. Assuming Sheldon is on the fall schedule, where do you think it should be placed?