ABC Renew/Cancel - November 11: Once Upon a Time is Likely to be Renewed
Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)
Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.8, 0.6-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-0.9)
The Real O'Neals (1.0, 0.8-1.2)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Agents of SHIELD (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (1.3, 1.1-1.6)
Last Man Standing (1.1, 1.1-1.1)
Modern Family (2.4, 2.2-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Black-ish (1.7, 1.5-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.6, 1.2-2.2)
The Goldbergs (1.9, 1.8-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 1.9-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.2, 1.1-1.4)
The Middle (1.6, 1.4-1.8)
Speechless (1.8, 1.7-2.0)
*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7
Once Upon a Time: Considering how poorly ABC drama is performing, I figured that at least one of my toss-up dramas would be renewed. I ruled out Quantico a couple of weeks ago, leaving Once Upon a Time and Agents of SHIELD. This week, Once Upon a Time bounced back from its 0.9 against the World Series, receiving a 1.1. Considering that the one 0.9 was its only fractional rating, I have decided that it is likely to be renewed. Agents of SHIELD still has a chance to be renewed in addition to Once Upon a Time, but I think it is unlikely that Once Upon a Time gets canceled this year.
Conviction: It didn't get it's episode order cut like Notorious, but ABC's other new drama that has been predicted certain to be canceled from the start won't go beyond 13 episodes this season, an obvious sign of cancelation. Like Notorious, it is not officially canceled at the moment, but it will not be returning.
Designated Survivor: This show did not recover with the World Series not airing this week, but it didn't fall either. Still, it remains ABC's #2 drama, only beneath Grey's Anatomy, and I can't imagine it finishing the season at worse than their #4 drama. That, plus it being their only new drama this season that didn't fail, assuming Time After Time and Still-Star Crossed fail, keep it at certain to be renewed despite declining ratings.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!