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FOX Renew/Cancel Watch By The Numbers

This edition, FOX Renew/Cancel Watch will be based less on my intuition alone and more on ratings analysis website SpottedRatings to see exactly how those FOX shows are doing right now. There are so many ways we can approach this given FOX currently lags behind the other networks in terms of scripted programming average, both with and without Empire. It's called "True Plus". "Plus" refers to the percentage of the non-sports Big 4 seasonal average a show currently has, so a 100 Plus = a show performing exactly at average. "True" refers to an approximate rating adjusted due to strength of time slot, competition, viewing levels, etc. numbers. I'm going to use a metric that I derived using two from the

I'm not asking everyone to be able to follow all of my calculations, but I'll explain them anyway: to find the "True Plus":

1) Find the individual show's "True" average
2) Find the "True" league average
3) Divide the result from Step 1 by the result from Step 2 and round to the nearest whole number

Last season for FOX, the "True Plus" cutoff was a 70. In fact, two shows (Scream Queens and American Grit) received a renewal with ratings at 70% of the "True" league average, while everything below it (including Grandfathered's 69) got chopped. So here are the "True Plus" numbers for FOX this season, through Sunday, October 16:

Empire: 226
Lethal Weapon: 122
The Simpsons: 104
Family Guy: 96
Gotham: 84
New Girl: 83
Lucifer: 80
Brooklyn Nine-Nine: 78
Bob's Burgers: 75 (ALREADY RENEWED)
Son of Zorn: 73
Pitch: 72
The Exorcist: 69
The Last Man On Earth: 66
Scream Queens: 62
Rosewood: 62

Now, no matter what way you spin them (i.e. compare them only to FOX's average, take out Empire, etc), the shows are still doing the same relative to one another, so I think this is a solid metric to go by. So what would I change that these numbers don't say?

First, Gotham is only one season away from syndication revenue, and its 84 True Plus can be rounded up to a certain renewal in my book. I'd also bump Lucifer up to a certain renewal; it holds what it's given and is in their top tier of shows; I challenge everyone to draw up a schedule without it and see what it looks like. Unless a bunch of midseason shows hit, I don't see Lucifer going anywhere.

I've always thought Pitch had a solid shot at a renewal, and based on these numbers there's still that possibility. Son of Zorn is also still hanging in there; unfortunately for it, it may still get canned if numbers go much lower in favor of a new animated comedy or The Last Man On Earth and its awards nominations.

Scream Queens and Rosewood just look plain ugly here. For comparison, this is only a tad above where Cooper Barrett and Second Chance finished last season, and below Grandfathered and Bordertown. Scream Queens could be another spoiler due to its young skew, and could possibly be taken over something like The Exorcist in an upset.

So finally, the table:

Certain Cancelation
Likely Cancelation
Watching
Likely Renewal
Certain Renewal 

Scream Queens
Son of Zorn
Pitch
Empire

Rosewood
The Exorcist
New Girl
Lethal Weapon


The Last Man On Earth
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
The Simpsons




Family Guy




Gotham




Lucifer






What do you think of these predictions? Let me know in the comments below!