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Ad Rates and Ratings: Are They Correlated? Let's Look at the Numbers

Now that you've seen the introductory article, it's time for some numbers. Once again, this time instead of providing raw A18-49 numbers, I will be providing the % of the league average the
expected threshold is. So a show that has an ad rate at 65% of the network's average ad rate under a direct correlation would be expected to clear 65% of the network's league average in the ratings for a renewal. Last season, this method perfectly predicted veteran bubble shows Nashville, Castle, Bones, Sleepy Hollow, and (most likely) Grimm. They're pretty useless when it comes to new shows and shows that were always going to get renewed, but keep a close eye on shows with multiple seasons on their resume that are starting to look a little mediocre in the ratings. Here's the list:

ABC
Monday
8-Dancing with the Stars: 105
10-Conviction: 92

Tuesday
8-The Middle: 104
8:30-American Housewife: 79
9-Fresh Off The Boat: 85
9:30-The Real O'Neals: 60
10-Marvel's Agents of SHIELD: 90

Wednesday
8-The Goldbergs: 120
8:30-Speechless: 114
9-Modern Family: 188
9:30-Black-ish: 116
10-Designated Survivor: 136

Thursday
8-Grey's Anatomy: 161
9-Notorious: 120
10-How to Get Away with Murder: 149

Friday
8-Last Man Standing: 63
8:30-Dr Ken: 54
9-Shark Tank: 83
10-20/20: 66

Sunday
7-America's Funniest Home Videos: 52
8-Once Upon a Time: 91
9-Secrets and Lies: 83
10-Quantico: 89



CBS
Monday
8-Kevin Can Wait: 132
8:30-Man with a Plan: 104
9-2 Broke Girls: 114
9:30-The Odd Couple: 89
10-Scorpion: 90

Tuesday
8-NCIS: 126
9-Bull: 112
10-NCIS: NO: 80

Wednesday
8-Survivor: 106
9-Criminal Minds: 104
10-Code Black: 85

Thursday
8-The Big Bang Theory: 238
8:30-The Great Indoors: 119
9-Mom: 100
9:30-Life in Pieces: 116
10-Pure Genius: 59

Friday
8-MacGyver: 59
9-Hawaii 5-0: 63
10-Blue Bloods: 61

Sunday
7-60 Minutes: 95
8-NCIS: LA: 89
9-Madam Secretary: 84
10-Elementary: 64

FOX
Monday
8-Gotham: 98
9-Lucifer: 95

Tuesday
8-Brooklyn Nine-Nine: 76
8:30-New Girl: 102
9-Scream Queens: 92

Wednesday
8-Lethal Weapon: 130
9-Empire: 329

Thursday
8-Rosewood: 63
9-Pitch: 70

Friday
8-Hell's Kitchen: 59
9-The Exorcist: 39

Sunday
7:30-Bob's Burgers: 50
8-The Simpsons: 122
8:30-Son of Zorn: 106
9-Family Guy: 100
9:30-The Last Man On Earth: 71

NBC
NBC gets interesting because you have shows on both extremes: This is Us is the #3 non-sports show on the Big 4 ad rate list and both nights of The Voice are right behind it, but you also have two of the cheapest shows to advertise on in Caught on Camera and Dateline.

Monday
8-The Voice: 151
10-Timeless: 133

Tuesday
8-The Voice: 143
9-This is Us: 192
10-Chicago Fire: 116

Wednesday
8-Blindspot: 95
9-Lasw & Order: SVU: 88
10-Chicago PD: 84

Thursday
8-Superstore: 62
8:30-The Good Place: 66
9-Chicago Med: 96
10-The Blacklist: 103

Friday
8-Caught on Camera: 31
9-Dateine: 38