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ABC Renew/Cancel - October 28: Quantico is Likely to be Canceled


This last week brought some new lows and an order trimming for Notorious. The scary ratings may be fitting with Halloween coming up, but I am still making my weekly predictions. See what my predictions are below.


Certain to be Canceled
Conviction (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
Notorious* (0.9, 0.8-1.1)

Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-0.9)
Quantico (0.9. 0.7-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Secrets & Lies (0.9, 0.7-1.0)

Toss-Up
Agents of SHIELD (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 1.0-1.3)

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Last Man Standing (1.1, 1.1-1.1)
Modern Family (2.4, 2.2-2.6)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.7, 1.6-1.9)
Black-ish (1.7, 1.5-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.7, 1.2-2.2)
The Goldbergs (1.9, 1.8-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.3, 2.1-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.2, 1.1-1.4)
The Middle (1.6, 1.5-1.8)
Speechless (1.8, 1.7-2.0)

*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23

Quantico: After falling yet again this week to a 0.7, I have decided to predict that Quantico will be canceled. While Agents of SHIELD is performing worse, a renewal for Quantico is essentially a two-season commitment, and I don't think that ABC will want to stick with a show currently getting 0.7s for another two years. Current toss-up Agents of SHIELD could get a short final season to replace a failed fall show, so that is why it is above Quantico here.

Notorious: We've known that Notorious would not make it to season 2 for a while; I predicted certain cancelation the first week. While it has yet to be officially canceled, ABC this week trimmed the order from 13 to 10 episodes. When shows' orders are trimmed following their premieres, that is a strong indication of cancelation, so much so that some would consider Notorious to currently be canceled.

Designated Survivor: This show hit a low this week, falling 4 tenths to 1.2. While this is not a good rating, I still can't see a way that Designated Survivor gets canceled. First of all, it may rebound due to competition from the World Series this week. Second of all, it is ABC's #2 drama, and likely can't end up doing worse than being #4 at the season's end, falling behind How to Get Away with Murder with spring lows, and Scandal. It's not as strong as ABC hoped it would be, but it's still certain to return.