ABC Renew/Cancel - October 21: The Real O'Neals is Likely to be Canceled
In week five of the season, the Tuesday comedies were put to the test in their second week. Also in the last week, the Sunday shows had to stay strong after a week off for a presidential debate, which lead to differing results.
Certain to be Canceled
Conviction (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
Notorious (1.0, 0.8-1.1)
Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-0.9)
The Real O'Neals (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
Secrets & Lies (0.9, 0.9-1.0)
Agents of SHIELD (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 1.1.-1.2)
Quantico (0.9, 0.8-1.0)
Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (1.5, 1.4-1.6)
Last Man Standing (1.1, 1.1-1.1)
Modern Family (2.4, 2.2-2.6)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.8, 1.7-1.9)
Black-ish (1.7, 1.5-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.8, 1.6-2.2)
The Goldbergs (1.9, 1.8-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.3, 2.1-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.2, 1.1-1.4)
The Middle (1.7, 1.5-1.8)
Speechless (1.9, 1.8-2.0)
The Real O'Neals: 1.2 already wasn't promising for the premiere of a single-camera comedy on ABC, but when The Real O'Neals dropped 3 tenths in its second week, tying Dr. Ken's most recent two ratings, that became even worse news. It is quite unlikely that the show will return, or even receive a backorder.
American Housewife: This last Tuesday was not a strong one for ABC, with every show dropping two to three tenths. The fact that new show American Housewife, which was already the highest rated of the night, dropped two tenths while its lead-in The Middle dropped three points out how strong the show is. This is why I have upgraded it to certain to be renewed.
Quantico: While it stayed flat in week two, Quantico dropped two tenths the week following the debate, ending up below Secrets & Lies. I am keeping it at toss-up this week considering how ABC could be determined to get this show to four seasons, but it is at risk of dropping to likely to be canceled depending on this Sunday's results.
Agents of SHIELD: Along with the comedies, Agents of SHIELD experienced a bad drop this week, going all the way down to 0.7. This tied Conviction for the lowest rating of any of ABC's scripted shows so far this season. It has the advantage of being Marvel, but like Quantico, it can still drop down to likely to be canceled soon.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!