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CW Renew/Cancel: Watching Crazy Ex (Again!), Plus Other Prediction Upgrades

Welcome to another special preseason installment of CW Renew/Cancel. We have two weeks left until the CW premieres their first batch of shows.


Final Season
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Watching

Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
The Vampire Diaries
The Originals
Reign
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
Arrow


The 100
Frequency
iZombie
The Flash




No Tomorrow
Jane the Virgin




Riverdale
Supernatural




Supergirl


Prediction Changes:
Arrow and Supernatural are upgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Certain to be Renewed".
At the same time, I decided to upgrade DC's Legends of Tomorrow and Supergirl to "likely to be renewed".
In addition, I'm going to be "Watching" Crazy Ex-Girlfriend.

Here is some analysis.

Arrow: The DC superhero flagship show recently inked a syndication deal with TNT, joining Supernatural. At this point, a renewal would be based on how many more episodes it would need to add to its syndication package in addition to ratings. Also, I think the CW has bigger fish to fry, especially if the network average could go down. I won't be saying much for it this season. There is no chance for the show to get canceled unless ratings pull a 90210, and even that is unlikely at this point. Arrow is certain to be renewed.

Supernatural: The two leads have signed contracts through season 13. Again, this comes down to how many more episodes to produce for its hefty syndication package in addition to ratings. Even if it slightly underwhelms its ad rate, the network has bigger fish to fry, and it's unlikely that ratings completely tank. Unless there is cast or crew fatigue, Supernatural is certain to be renewed.

DC's Legends of Tomorrow and Supergirl: The sophomore superhero shows would have to completely underwhelm in order to be candidates for cancelation. I'll wait for the ratings to come out before deciding that their renewal predictions are certain. For now, I don't see a reason that either one will be canceled.

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend: Like last season, I think I'll have another tough prediction cycle with this show. It got sent to Fridays, and had its episode order capped to 13 episodes. Could this be another Life Unexpected and The Carrie Diaries? It's hard to tell, since both shows were distributed by Warner Bros. Crazy Ex-Girlfriend is distributed by CBS Studios. The toughest part of this prediction would be if CBS Studios affirmative action would rear its head and result in three CBS show renewals. Heck, I could see Reign coming back if Crazy completely tanks. It just got promoted as "Emmy-winning". It's going to be even tougher if it wins awards again. That's why I have Crazy Ex in the "Watching" column, until I see some ratings.

For all other shows, predictions have not changed. Will the power of CBS Studios save Reign for a summer run? It's possible, as it's cheaper to produce and is an international coproduction. As for The Originals, I think this is the last season. If The Vampire Diaries didn't get a syndication deal to air on a US cable network, it's very unlikely that The Originals would get one. Also, The Originals no longer airs internationally in some countries up to a week after the US broadcast, which leads me to believe that popularity is fading fast.

What do you think about the change in predictions? Let me know in the comments below!