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Summer Renew/Cancel - June 3: Mistresses is Likely to be Canceled

In week three, three shows have premiered this week (including the final season of Beauty and the Beast), and one that premiered earlier showed why they should stay where they are here.



Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Houdini & Doyle (FOX) (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Mistresses (ABC) (0.7, 0.7-0.7)

Toss-Up

Likely to be Renewed
The Night Shift (NBC) (1.1, 1.1-1.1)
Wayward Pines (FOX) (0.9, 0.8-0.9)

Certain to be Renewed

Fate Determined
Beauty and the Beast FINAL SEASON

Yet to Premiere
American Gothic (CBS)
Aquarius (NBC)
BrainDead (CBS)
Uncle Buck (ABC)
Zoo (CBS)


Mistresses: This show returned to a 0.7, a rating that it only dipped beneath three times last year. With the much larger lead-in of The Bachelorette, this ratings indicate failure. Even if it was about as strong as last year, Mistresses may not have made it this time around, because the renewal could have been to avoid the bad PR of canceling all four summer series. This time, there are only 2 summer shows on ABC, so canceling both won't be as bad. And anyway, ABC is probably losing too much money on this to keep it around just for PR purposes.

The Night Shift: The power of Sony got this show a third season, but its poor retention made that season be in the summer, like its first season. And, like its first but unlike its second season, it premiered strong. A 1.1 is definitely a decent rating for summer, it didn't get much higher airing after The Voice last season, and NBC was willing to work with Sony to make a third season happen, so I'm sure they will again.

Houdini and Doyle: Even not being an American show likely can't save Houdini & Doyle now. A 0.5 is bad, even for Memorial Day. The only thing keeping it from being certain to be canceled is that it's an international show, but even that won't matter if it goes much lower in the upcoming five weeks.

Wayward Pines: A 0.9 was fine for the season premiere, but I was worried that the rating would fall. In week two, it did fall to 0.8. This is the same as the lowest rating from season one, and considering that ratings drop every year, and that this show now films in Vancouver, a cheaper location, I believe that it is likely to be renewed. But if it drops more, expect my prediction to change.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!