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Summer Renew/Cancel - June 24: American Gothic is Certain to be Canceled

It's week six, and this week we had the premiere of American Gothic. Also this week, two shows have moved to a different category, and time may be running out for another. So, let's get to my predictions and my reasoning.



Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average adults 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled
American Gothic (CBS) (0.7, 0.7-0.7)
Aquarius (NBC) (0.4, 0.4-0.4)
BrainDead (CBS) (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Houdini & Doyle (FOX) (0.6, 0.4-0.7)

Likely to be Canceled
Mistresses (ABC) (0.7, 0.7-0.8)

Toss-Up
Wayward Pines (FOX) (0.8, 0.7-0.9)

Likely to be Renewed
The Night Shift (NBC) (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
Uncle Buck (ABC) (1.3, 1.0-1.5)

Certain to be Renewed

Fate Determined
Beauty and the Beast (CW) FINAL SEASON

Yet to Premiere
Zoo (CBS)


American Gothic: This show premiered to the same rating that BrainDead premiered to. It was not a healthy number for BrainDead, and it is even worse for American Gothic considering the size of its lead-in. For any episode in the season, this is weak. For a premiere, it is terrible.

BrainDead: After dropping two tenths this week to a miserable 0.5, I have moved BrainDead to certain to be canceled. There is no way CBS could justify renewing this show. Even if Zoo fails in season two, CBS won't renew this.

Mistresses: One of the trickier shows this summer, Mistresses dropped again to a 0.7. This is a painful number, especially considering its lead-in. But why would ABC decide to give this show the lead in of The Bachelorette? It would have been better used on repeats. The scheduling suggests that ABC wants this show to succeed, but I don't think they will be able to renew it with this low of ratings.

Uncle Buck: After a large premiere, Uncle Buck experienced a large drop. 1.0 is still a good number for the summer, which is why I haven't moved it, but that drop is worrisome. The rest of the shows here were intended or expected to air in the summer, but Uncle Buck wasn't, so contracts likely expire at the end of June. Because of this, I may post a special summer renew/cancel on Wednesday, June 29 if I decide to make Uncle Buck certain to be renewed or likely to be canceled. Stay tuned!

Wayward Pines: The show has stabilized since its premiere, consistently hitting 0.7s now. That number is two tenths lower than anything it hit in season one, where it hit a high of 1.2 and averaged a 1.1. This season, it is averaging a 0.8, and if it gets two more 0.7s in the upcoming two weeks, that will be its average. That average is a bit lower than season one's, and it isn't a strong number, so I am wondering if the show may be canceled. However, each year ratings are lower, and we don't know how much above the bar Wayward Pines performed in season one. Also, production has moved to Canada, which is cheaper. This is going to be a difficult show to predict.

Zoo: Coming up this week is Zoo, CBS's only renewal from last summer. With how American Gothic and BrainDead are performing, if Zoo gets anywhere near its numbers from last season, it should be able to get renewed. However, CBS summer dramas have experienced big drops between seasons, so it could be getting Extant-level ratings this season.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!