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FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Predicting Grandfathered, Nothing Left on the Bubble

Canceled Cancelation Predicted Renewal Predicted Renewed
Minority Report Bordertown Family Guy (RENEWED) The Simpsons
Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life Grandfathered The X-Files Bob’s Burgers

The Grinder

Empire

Second Chance

Scream Queens

Sleepy Hollow

Bones



Gotham



Brooklyn 9-9



The Last Man On Earth



Lucifer



Rosewood



New Girl

Does FOX Really Need Grandfathered?
So far this season, FOX has renewed 11 shows: comedies The Simpsons, Bob's Burgers, Brooklyn 9-9, The Last Man On Earth, and New Girl; dramas Empire, Scream Queens, Gotham, Rosewood, Lucifer, and Bones. Additionally, a renewal for Family Guy is fully expected (may not even be announced) given the fact that they are already working on a new production cycle and have leftover episodes from this cycle.

If those are all the renewals FOX hands out, then they would have renewed their top 12 scripted shows in Live + Same Day ratings, while cancelling the 8 ones that were unlucky enough to fall that threshold. Last season, the 8 shows that fell below the Top 10 were canceled, while the rest were renewed. So even if they cancel the same number of shows this season as last season, they still end up renewing two more hours, essentially solving the problem of an Idol-less schedule.

This season, they lost American Idol, freeing up about two hours of time slots in the spring. However, it's worth noting that FOX renewed six drama hours instead of the usual four, and assuming Family Guy is renewed, they've renewed their typical three comedy hours. Do they really have room for Grandfathered?

It is widely known that the most money that a network or production company makes from a show is the distribution rights. FOX only holds half the ownership in Grandfathered, which the other half belonging to ABC Studios. The ratings are miserable, holding at around a 0.8 for its most recent airings despite having one of the best, if not the best, lead-ins FOX could have given it. In fact, it just recently went down to a 0.6 for its return. We can't say they didn't try with the time slot upgrade. Sure, the New Girl lead-in has made it more female-skewing, but it still loses a sizable portion of its lead-in's numbers. Given how far away this show is from a potential syndication deal of which FOX would only partially benefit, I see no reason to keep this one going. Unless, of course, there are numbers we are not seeing, such as C7 boosts or strong streaming numbers. I don't catch that vibe though. You can argue that half-owned Grandfathered can get renewed with ratings just below un-owned Brooklyn 9-9, but we must remember there that Brooklyn 9-9 is only one season away from a potential syndication deal, and given that it is supposedly a solid streaming player for Hulu, the more episodes the better.

If FOX wants to do more comedy business with ABC Studios, or if ABC Studios pressures them into having one of their comedies on the schedule next season, there is the Courtney Cox-led Charity Case, which on the description and the lead's name looks to be a better fit with New Girl than Grandfathered. I think that would be a solid option, and we must also remember that FOX has ordered comedy Son of Zorn to series. Renewing Grandfathered would just be putting another low-rated comedy on the schedule when the priority should be finding something that will last.

FOX picked up two new comedies for this season's fall schedule and a couple more for midseason, so I see no reason why they can't do that again.

FOX only has to schedule 12.5 hours of programming next season, and they've already renewed 8.5 hours. If you include Family Guy, MasterChef Junior, Son of Zorn, and Shots Fired, we are up to 11.5 hours of programming. That's only 1.5 hours left, and there may even be another hour of reality thrown on Fridays somewhere. Even if they save a couple veterans for midseason, I think a struggling FOX would like to premiere more than 1 new drama and 1 new comedy in order to find a new hit. They supposedly have strong pilots in dramas Pitch and Star, and comedies Making History and Charity Case. So could Grandfathered get saved? Yes. It wouldn't surprise me *that* much. But I think it should be in FOX's best interest to cancel the show and start fresh. Their schedule is getting full as it is.