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FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Rosewood Without Empire + Upgrades for Sleepy Hollow and Bordertown

Canceled
Certatin to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Watching
Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed on Some Platform
Renewed
Minority Report
Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life
Bordertown
Rosewood
The Last Man On Earth
Family Guy
Brooklyn 9-9
The Simpsons

The Grinder
Grandfathered
Sleepy Hollow
Lucifer
Gotham

Bob’s Burgers

Second Chance


The X-Files
New Girl

Empire







Scream Queens







Bones

Rosewood without Empire
Earlier in the season, I looked into the male/female 18-34 demographics for the FOX shows, as provided by Programming Insider. I had concluded that Rosewood was a younger-skewing show in the company of Empire, Scream Queens, and the animated comedies, and I was a fool for doing so. Those W18-34 folks who had made Rosewood look really young-skewing? Yeah, most of them were just pre-tuning in to Empire. Take a look at recent data points:

December 2, 2015
A18-49: 1.5
W18-34: 1.5

March 2, 2016
A18-49: 0.9
W18-34: 0.7

As is seen, the A18-49 numbers really suffered without the Empire pre-tune, but the W18-34 numbers suffered even more. This shows just how much of the audience we thought was watching Rosewood actually "half-watched" and were waiting for the clock to strike 9:00. If it's fractional now, it's going to remain fractional next season if it doesn't get that Empire pre-tune, and as the W18-34 decline shows, it's "real" audience isn't exactly compatible with Empire either. With Bones and Scream Queens already renewed, can FOX take another low-rated drama on their schedule next season? It would be a waste to not let another show take a Wednesday time slot, yet it would most likely suffer on another night. It's relatively cheap to advertise on the show right now, but freshmen ad rates are less telling than veteran ones and we don't really know what FOX is willing to tolerate. Also worth noting is with the show not being as young-skewing as I once thought, chances are it doesn't get the biggest boost online, and never really saw a big delayed viewing boost.

Upgrades for Sleepy Hollow and Bordertown
Sleepy Hollow really has overachieved on Fridays, settling around the 0.8 area. When you consider Friday's lowest viewing levels in general, that's actually stronger than it performed on Thursdays. It's also been pointed out to me that the show has been getting a recent boost in promotion, such as a NASDAQ deal that essentially made Sleepy Hollow the face of FOX for a day, and that FOX
FOX
probably wouldn't be doing this to a show that has already finished production that they didn't intend to bring back. With no more American Idol, as well as the fact that they could hit a nice syndication or streaming deal for the show soon, Sleepy Hollow has more of a chance now than ever. It's also worth note that, yes, FOX hasn't renewed more than 4 dramas in recent years, they've already renewed 3 and Gotham is obviously the 4th. But considering that Scream Queens and Bones both have very short orders (essentially they could time share), and even Empire doesn't do full 22s, FOX could always renew more shows but order less episodes. As mentioned before by FOX, streaming deals can be as valuable if not MORE valuable to some of their shows than traditional syndication.

Bordertown, meanwhile, just recently overachieved in its Sunday at 7 time slot during Daylight Savings Time, notching a 0.8 A18-49 rating (M18-34 number yet to come). Some say that it has been helped by the NASCAR races earlier in the day, but considering this show has hit a 0.7 in its post-Family Guy time slot, that isn't all that bad. I am still calling a cancellation; just not as certain as before. Keep in mind if it is renewed, don't expect it until late spring next season, and for a short season. It takes time to animate shows.

Update on The Last Man On Earth
The Last Man On Earth returned to a 1.1 A18-49 rating and a 0.9 M18-34 rating, and held the bulk of the Family Guy lead-in. In fact, more than the seemingly-much-more-compatible Bordertown. And it stayed steady at that number in week 2, which is pretty impressive for a serialized show, even if it's a half-hour comedy. Creatively the show has no signs of slowing down, FOX is increasing the number of shows with the production company, and the show has been nominated for numerous awards. On top of that, streaming deals will want a proper ending, and if any given episode of Last Man is an indicator, we're getting a cliffhanger at the end of the season. Combine that with the fact that FOX's comedy situation in whole is dire, and I see no reason why they wouldn't renew it.

What's Next?
Lucifer has been hanging in there in the Likely to be Renewed category for its entire run, but if it does good enough tonight, expect it to land in the Certain to be Renewed category.