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ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: More Predictions Explained

Canceled Certain to be Canceled Likely to be Canceled Watching Likely to be Renewed Certain to be Renewed Renewed
Blood & Oil Agent Carter

Castle American Crime Last Man Standing Dr Ken Blackish

Wicked City Galavant The Family The Real O’Neals


Fresh Off The Boat

Of Kings and Prophets The Muppets



The Goldbergs


Nashville



How to Get Away with Murder






Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD






The Middle






Modern Family






Once Upon a Time






Quantico






Scandal

On Agent Carter and Galavant
At the beginning of the year, I told myself that I wasn't going to put a bridge series to a certain cancellation after what happened last season. I've broken that though. Agent Carter is down 47% year-to-year, averaging a 0.79 A18-49 demo. Galavant is down 52% year-to-year, averaging a 0.63 demo. Both numbers are simply inexcusable; in the case of Galavant, it's the lowest-rated scripted show to have aired on ABC all season (including Wicked City), and Agent Carter is the third-to-lowest. Could you imagine what the numbers would be next season? Almost gaurenteed to be even worse. While I like the idea for bridge season, ABC just hasn't found shows that have done all that well, unless you count American Crime's award love.

On Of Kings and Prophets and The Family
Of Kings and Prophets just premiered to a 0.8 A18-49 rating. Let that sink in for a little. At this point it's not a matter of renewal or cancellation, it's a matter of how many episodes ABC will actually air in-season. 

The Family did worse than I expected. I had a gut feeling it would be a break-out hit like Resurrection, but it wasn't; in fact, it lost almost half its audience for its in-time slot premiere and is already fractional. I'll give it one more week to see if it can inch up and show some signs of life, but if not, the certain cancellation column is inevitable.

On The Muppets and The Real O'Neals
I really think that if ABC had intended to renew The Muppets, they would have done so alongside Fresh Off The Boat and the Wednesday comedies' mass renewal, which also came very shortly after its finale (great for PR purposes). The only glimmer of hope I see for it is if Last Man Standing's contracts don't fall through, Dr Ken goes off the air with it (which I think isn't going to happen), and ABC wants to continue with comedy on Friday. There's not much of a chance of it happening, but maybe that's where The Muppets comes into play? It would easily be a certain cancellation if it weren't for corporate synergy, and just because it's at a likely cancellation now doesn't mean I won't downgrade it eventually.

The Real O'Neals lost a lot of its premiere audience on its first in-time slot showing, pulling in a 1.1 preliminary A18-49 rating. Like The Family, I'll give it one more week to see if it rises; if it stays the same or falls, I'll downgrade it. It doesn't really look like ABC would need it with Fresh Off The Boat already renewed.

On Dr. Ken
I was legitimately surprised that Dr Ken wasn't included in the mass renewal. Shortly thereafter, it aired after a rerun of Last Man Standing, and kept its typical numbers. That sure is impressive, and ABC has finally found a solid companion to Last Man Standing. This shows that the show can stand on its own and deserves a renewal regardless of what happens to Last Man Standing. 

What's Next?
American Crime has critical acclaim, something that ABC is starting to lack now that the critics aren't as high on Modern Family as they used to be, but it's also averaging fractional (0.94). On the downside, it's the fifth-lowest-rated ABC show this season, but on the plus side, it's ABC's #1 scripted bridge series. I want to see its finale's rating before making a decision, and it will be a hard one with new management, seeing that we don't know what there plans regarding a bridge season are for next season. Right now I'm leaning renewal (55%-45%), but I'm not entirely sure. We also might have to revisit Castle. Stay tuned.