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CW Renew/Cancel Watch: Is 'The Vampire Diaries' This Season's 90210?

Hey folks, this is week 21 of the CW Renew/Cancel Watch. It looks like I ended up having to downgrade a few predictions for this week. Here are this week's predictions.

Final Season
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Toss Up
Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
Beauty and the Beast
iZombie

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Jane the Virgin
Arrow



The 100
Reign 
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow



The Vampire Diaries (F)

Supernatural





The Flash





The Originals (F)

Prediction Changes from Last Week:
The 100 is back on the bubble after scoring a 0.5 A18-49 rating.
The Vampire Diaries is also back on the bubble after scoring a 0.4 A18-49 rating for the second straight week in a row. 

Why is The Vampire Diaries a Toss Up?
Bill Gorman, the guy we love to hate, stated that ratings declines would leave this show vulnerable. After a second straight week of 0.4 A18-49 ratings, I decided to downgrade it to a Toss Up. Hopefully that stabilizes. But the question is, will this former CW hit become this season's 90210? Only time will tell and it also depends on whether or not leads Paul Wesley and Ian Somerhalder will resign for one more go around, since they are on one year contracts. 

Why is The 100 a Toss Up? 
The show hit a 0.5 A18-49 rating by episode 4. Why is it not a likely cancelation? It's in its third season. It's far away from syndication, but we've seen Beauty and the Beast get renewed for a fourth season before season three ever premiered. Here's a new rule for predictions: For third season shows that do not have the magic number of episodes (60+), predictions will not go lower than a Toss Up. 

Yet to Premiere: Containment (premieres 4/19)