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CW Renew/Cancel Watch: 'The Vampire Diaries' is Likely to be Canceled

Hey folks, it's Jessica. Since this is the week before the TCAs, it's crunch time for CW shows. 

Format for Predictions: Show Title (Average Live+SD A18-49 Rating)

Certain to Be Canceled
Significant Mother (0.2) - 10%
  
Likely to be Canceled
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) - 30%
iZombie (0.6) - 35%
The Vampire Diaries (0.6) - 40%

Toss Up
None

Likely to be Renewed
None yet

Certain to Be Renewed
Arrow (1.0) - 100%
Jane the Virgin (0.4) - 95%
Reign (0.3) - 80%
Supernatural (0.7) - 100%
The Flash (1.4) - 100%
The Originals (0.4) - 100%

Fate Determined 
Beauty and the Beast (final season premieres summer 2016)

Yet to Premiere
Containment (midseason)
DC's Legends of Tomorrow (premieres 1/21)
The 100 (season 3 premieres 1/21)

The Vampire Diaries: Normally I would cut a veteran show some slack, since veteran shows would normally survive at lower relative ratings levels than can first or second year shows. However, the decline of The Vampire Diaries' ratings have taken up all this slack, and more. Depending on the success of Legends of Tomorrow and The 100, and to a lesser extent, Containment, being a Warner produced show doesn't help much. The show's prediction will therefore be downgraded to "likely canceled". 

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend: To be honest, I still think this show is pretty much dead. It's the lowest rated show on the entire network. It's on hiatus until January 25, but until then, the network is airing repeats of Whose Line is it Anyway? and Penn & Teller: Fool Us, and so far they have gotten higher repeat ratings than both this show and Jane the Virgin. A partial backorder usually signals a vote of no confidence for the network. But there are some extraneous factors. It received California tax credits. Rachel Bloom is nominated for a Golden Globe. The price of an ad is approximately $23,000 according to AdAge. For these reasons, I decided to upgrade my prediction for it to "likely canceled". This could be the most mind-boggling renewal of the season, and if Legends of Tomorrow underperforms on Thursday, the network would might as well be wishing that they would give full season orders for this show and iZombie. 

I have also provided the level of confidence of the chances of renewal.