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CW Renew/Cancel Watch: Back to Pre-TCA Predictions

Final Season
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Toss Up
Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
Beauty and the Beast
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
iZombie
The Vampire Diaries

Arrow





Jane the Virgin





Reign





Supernatural





The Flash





The Originals

Prediction Changes from Last Time:
'The Vampire Diaries' upgraded from "Likely to be Canceled" to "Toss Up"
'Crazy Ex-Girlfriend' downgraded from "Likely to be Canceled" to "Certain to be Canceled".

Why is Crazy Ex-Girlfriend Certain to be Canceled? 
Low ratings. Despite Rachel Bloom winning a Golden Globe, we can argue that it is no Jane the Virgin. Last year, Jane the Virgin premiered with a 0.6 A18-49 rating. Crazy Ex-Girlfriend premiered to an anemic 0.3 A18-49 rating. Even Mark Pedowitz was pessimistic about the show's low ratings. For those of you saying that Netflix will increase ratings, there is absolutely no evidence of Netflix bringing in higher ratings whatsoever. Netflix is also ad-free, and Nielsen measures whether people watch commercials. It even has little to no lift in Live +7 ratings. Not to mention, the network had to pay Showtime for the show's pilot. Despite the fact that it is cheap to produce, the network may actually be losing money. I wouldn't be surprised if the affiliates get angry and preempt the 8pm time slot.

Why is The Vampire Diaries a Toss Up? 
I have to be honest with you, this show will be the most difficult to predict. It just moved to Friday along with The Originals. Sounds like that the network has little faith in the show's performance in the Thursday time slot. It will have to come down to ratings on Fridays before I make a final decision. 

Yet to Premiere: The 100, DC's Legends of Tomorrow, Containment

Next week, The 100 and DC's Legends of Tomorrow premiere. Expect initial predictions next Friday.