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CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Supergirl' Likely to be Renewed


Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of January 17, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.7 / 2.26
-5.8%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.01
--
4
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.86
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.83
-20.4%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.74
-17.1%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.70
-32.0%
8
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.66
-27.8%
9
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
10
Mike & Molly
- / 1.6 / 1.60
-17.9%
11
Limitless
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.51
--
12
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.45
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.29
-21.3%
14
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28
--
15
Madam Secretary
1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26
-12.5%
16
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.4 / 1.20
-7.7%
17
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.3 / 1.08
-10.0%
18
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.06
-11.7%
19
Elementary
0.8 / 1.2 / 1.01
-22.3%
20
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.87
-37.9%

Angel from Hell has been marked as "Likely to be Canceled" after only two episodes. Last week, the comedy premiered to a mediocre 1.6 and fell 19 percent to a 1.3 this week. A freshman comedy on CBS with a 1.3 after only two episodes is unacceptable. I like to only move a show down/up one level per week, so unless it sees a significant uptick by its next airing, this one is headed for certain cancellation territory very soon.

With official word from CBS, Mike & Molly is ending this season with a conclusion and all. We knew this already, but this formality allows the show to be marked as "Already Canceled" in the index above. While its ratings are no longer significant to a renew/cancel prediction, I will continue to update its data.

Things aren't looking good for The Good Wife. Co-creators Robert and Michelle King will not return to serve as showrunners if the legal drama is picked up for an eighth season. This doesn't come as much of a surprise, since the Kings have been vocal about their seven season plan for some time now.  They are also spearheading a CBS project set for summer 2016, titled BrainDead. CBS's attitude toward The Good Wife doesn't sound promising either. While there is apparently a bench of producers that could step in to replace the Kings, CBS said that they have not made a decision on the future of the show yet. The ratings are low, its in its seventh season, and its losing its creators/showrunners. It's "Likely to be Canceled" right now, but I may be inclined to predict it as "Certain" soon. Check back on this one.
Despite being torn apart by many commenters, Supergirl has actually been holding up decently after nine episodes. It hasn't dipped below 1.5 yet, which Limitless and Code Black certainly have. CBS seems to have a lot of faith in it, and its 20-episode season, compared to a traditional 22 for a full season, doesn't really harm its chances, from my perspective. It is CBS's #1 new drama and #4 scripted show, not to mention that network TV is high on superhero concepts right now. As long as it holds up in mid-to-high 1s, I think this one is "Likely to be Renewed" for a second season. Things could change by the end of the season, but right now, it's looking safe.

- - - -

What are your thoughts on my predictions? If you were CBS, would you renew or cancel Supergirl? Feel free to share your thoughts below!