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CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Elementary' Likely to be Renewed

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes follows. My current predictions are as of January 2, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.




   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.5 / 2.22
-7.5%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.00
--
4
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.85
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.80
-21.7%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 1.9 / 1.67
-20.5%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.67
-33.2%
8
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.60
-20.0%
9
Mom
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-29.1%
10
Limitless
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.52
--
11
Madam Secretary
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.29
-10.4%
12
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.4 / 1.26
-21.3%
14
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.19
-8.5%
15
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.1 / 1.07
-10.8%
16
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.06
-11.7%
17
Elementary
0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97
-25.4%
18
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.86
-40.7%

Here we are in 2016 already, but the new year hasn't exactly brought a great amount of change to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch just yet. While only one show's status has changed this week, expect Angel From Hell to potentially shake things up in the coming weeks, as well as Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders and The Odd Couple in the coming months.
Elementary: The one change this week goes to Elementary, which is currently in its fourth season on CBS. The show has an incredibly lucrative syndication deal in place with WGN, yielding $3 million per episode. This is an incredible package deal that has motivated CBS to treat it with great care for the past four years. However, it's ratings are consistently very low and indicate that if it stays on the air and has a lock on that $3m/ep deal, it should retire to a slot where the expectations are slightly lower. Thus, in my mind, Sundays at 10 would be perfect to get another season or two out of the show merely for its syndication benefits. I have had Elementary "On the Bubble" for a good portion of this season, but I'm ready to promote it to "Likely to be Renewed" given that CBS would most likely axe a number of shows before it. I was concerned with it dipping to a 0.8 rating so early on in the season, but it has since rebounded to ~1.0 each week, which is bad, but a kind of good-bad, given its valuable deals in place. We'll see how the remainder of the season goes, but as of now, I think it's chances are fairly comfortable.