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Summer Renew/Cancel Predictions - July 31: Mistresses Will Likely be Canceled

Hi! In case this is your first time reading my summer renew/cancel predictions post, I'm Hunter and I will be posting these predictions each weekend this summer, covering the summer shows on the five major broadcast networks. This is week seven, and this week Welcome to Sweden was canceled by NBC after four episodes (two weeks) of its second season. Here are the summer shows divided into categories, and then my in-detail thoughts on a few of them. Enjoy!

Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average adults 18-49 rating)

Certain to be Canceled
The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC) (0.8)
Dates (CW) (0.1)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX) (0.5)
The Whispers (ABC) (1.0)

Will Likely be Canceled
Extant (CBS) (0.7)
Mistresses (ABC) (0.8)
Rookie Blue (ABC) (0.7)

Toss-Up

Will Likely be Renewed

Certain to be Renewed
Under the Dome (CBS) (1.1)
Zoo (CBS) (1.1)

Fate Determined
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC) CANCELED
American Odyssey (NBC) CANCELED
Aquarius (NBC) RENEWED
Beauty and the Beast (CW) RENEWED
Hannibal (NBC) CANCELED
Wayward Pines (FOX) CANCELED
Welcome to Sweden (NBC) CANCELED

Yet to Premiere
The Carmichael Show (NBC)
Mr. Robinson (NBC)
Significant Mother (CW)

After six weeks of sitting at "toss-up" I have finally decided to move Mistresses. It's average isn't much better than Rookie Blue's now (unrounded, based on ratings rounded to the nearest one-tenth, Rookie Blue is exactly 0.7, and Mistresses is 0.775), and this week it tied Rookie Blue after last week doing worse than it. I don't think that Mistresses will be renewed. But I am not certain, and I wonder if either it or Rookie Blue will get renewed just because ABC won't want to cancel all four of their scripted summer series this year.

Speaking of Rookie Blue, I mentioned last week that its 0.8 rating made me want to upgrade it, but I would wait. I am glad I waited, because this week it was back down to 0.7. I doubt it will return next summer on ABC (though it still can be renewed in Canada), but really the question is, how cheep is it for ABC to air it?

Mistresses isn't the only show that I kept at "toss-up" for a while, Extant stayed there for three weeks before I downgraded it last week. This week, the show is asking to go back up as it earned a 0.8 rating. I'm not moving it this week, but if it doesn't go back down next week, expect it to move back up on here.

If they already weren't certain enough, Zoo and Under the Dome are looking even more certain for renewal this week. Zoo went up this week to a 1.2, up two tenths from last week's 1.0, and Under the Dome was flat with last week's 1.0 rating. Despite Extant's poor ratings, CBS is still making money off scripted series during the summer.

Welcome to Sweden was unsurprisingly canceled this week. Its fourth episode of the season, which aired Sunday at 8:30, earned a 0.2 rating, down from the 0.3 that the previous episode that night and the 0.3s of the previous week's episodes. I was planning on moving it to "certain to be canceled" this week. However, I was still correct in predicting its cancelation last week. It is now the sixth cancelation I have correctly predicted. The renewal of Aquarius I incorrectly predicted, and the renewal of Beauty and the Beast happened before its current season began (although if you look back on my Disqus account you will see that I predicted that it would become a summer show and it would get renewed).

Next week I will have my first predictions for Significant Mother and Mr. Robinson. Will their good lead-ins of Whose Line is it Anyway? and America's Got Talent respectively help? We will see!

Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? How do you think the upcoming summer shows will do? Leave a comment with your thoughts!

Online Viewing and How it May Affect The Future of Television


Think back to all the shows you have watched, whether it just be for one episode or more, in July. How many of these shows did you actually watch on TV? I'll start:


  • Bob's Burgers: Netflix
  • The Office: Netflix
  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Netflix
I have also watched a few episodes of Gravity Falls online, and plan on watching the second season of BoJack Horseman, a Netflix animated original, very soon. In fact, the only show I have watched on actual TV is The Middle (and even then all the episodes I watched I have previously seen).

And I highly doubt that I am alone in this. There are over 60 million active Netflix subscribers internationally, and its plethora of original programming has risen exponentially. Veterans such as House of Cards and Orange is the New Black have recently been joined by newer cult successes such as Sense8 and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, all while viewers stream old favorites such as the newly-added Friends. Netflix has also been said by some to have contributed to the breakout success of AMC's recent hit Breaking Bad, and is home to current broadcast shows such as The Originals, which struck an online syndication deal with the platform well before the traditional four full seasons mark.

One thing that would strike a new Netflix viewer would be the fact that the service provides all of its offerings commercial-free, with little to no product placement (side note: I did see some on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, as they presumably still thought the show was to be broadcast on NBC). 

In this sense, Netflix is changing the way in which viewers think of TV. Despite how many Emmy nominations it receives, Orange is the New Black receives, it is quite possible that the show in and of itself does not make a profit. But remember, Netflix is a paid service! This means that the major purpose of creating such series and having old broadcast favorites around as well are to increase the number of subscribers for the system, otherwise known as brand awareness.

According to an October 2014 Business Insider article, House of Cards cost approximately $100 million dollars to produce in its first season. Comparatively, one of broadcast television's top broadcast series, Modern Family, was sold to NBC Universal for $1.4 million an episode (which would be equivalent to $33.6 million per season, just a third of the estimated House of Cards, which is distributed by a streaming service that doesn't report ratings and produced by small independent companies.

So how can Netflix do this? It's all in the $8. That is the cost to have a monthly subscription to Netflix , which seems like a very cheap number, but it all adds up. If you join Netflix to watch the first season of House of Cards and keep it all the way through your season 3 binge-watch, that $8 has turned into more like $200.

But again, it's all about the brand awareness. According to the aforementioned Business Insider article, 17 million new subscribers have joined since the beginning of the series in February of 2013, whereas, which is roughly 35 times the amount of new subscribers the service would have needed to turn a profit. And that is just one example of one of its most popular series, if not the most popular, driving in subscribers in droves until the point where Netflix is making hundreds of millions of dollars.

According to an article on marketwatch.com from the same late 2014 time period, Netflix is worth more than HBO and approximately as much as CBS. Some analysts have the online streaming service doubling its subscribers over the next two years. 

Now, what does this all mean for broadcast television? Well, only time will tell, but I will highlight what I think may happen

  • Ratings in the A18-49 demographic will continue to see significant year-to-year declines as more younger people start streaming.
  • Advertisers will be evermore interested in the hard-to-reach sub demos, such as M18-34 and W18-34. Such demographics have been partially attributed to the constant renewals on one platform or another of low-rated shows such as The Mindy Project, New Girl, and Bob's Burgers. 
  • Projects such as what NBC did to Aquarius (the online streaming part, not the renewed then shipped to Saturdays part) will become more prominent as networks experiment with the growing phenomenon that is binge-watching.
Let's switch gears a little bit now and talk more about how advertisers are going to effectively promote their products to viewers who simply refuse to actually watch their 30-second ads? That is not to undermine the value of such an ad (most cost over $100,000) but rather to open the question of if and how they can expand their horizons effectively and still make a profit.

After stumbling across a Mashable article written at the very end of 2014, I found myself in overwhelming agreement with a couple points. One of these points suggest that the ads be very individualized, which was quoted in the article to be said by Mr. Gavin Douglas, the CEO of a company called iPowow. An effort has already been done somewhat for this--you won't see an ad for NFL football on The Hallmark Channel or vise versa--we're talking SUPER individualized.

There were no specifics about how this would possibly work, and we have no idea of knowing if it is on the radars of networks and/or advertisers. I challenge you all now to recognize the device you are using right now to read this article, and think about all the possible ways you may have shared information with a larger company. Reading this on an iPhone? Apple probably has a sense of where you are. Clicked a link here after seeing a Twitter post? Twitter knows your age from when you signed up (or at least the age you put down!). There's a reason why those ad-supported tweets seem creepily tailored to you. And that really goes for any site, especially those of which you have logged into using an account.

Point is, if Apple and Twitter and Google and whatever else knows stuff about you, why can't broadcast television? Even Netflix suggests titles based on your viewing habits and an optional survey of what types of shows you typically like. Chances are, broadcast television may find a way to file suit and do the same as all these online companies are doing.

That way when I watch The Middle live, I don't have to watch commercials for both teenagers and middle-aged females, two of the demographics the show unsurprisingly hits best. I can enter my age and give them permission to track my viewing habits, and who knows, maybe the new system would not only create more specific, watchable ads but also more accurate TV ratings. As mentioned earlier, I would have no way of knowing financially or practically how the networks feel about such an aspect, but to the casual viewer and avid TV ratings fan, I think it would be worth investigating.

The other aspect that the Mashable article brought up was making shows more interactive than ever. That is not talking about calling 1-866-IDOL-05 to make sure your favorite person sings the following week via an automated voice message, but rather to have an interactive website or app that allows viewers to participate live. According to the article, Nielsen estimates say around 85% are using a secondary device while watching TV. Twitter engagement for shows up exponentially in shows that tend to skew younger is just one example. Such a tactic has been tried once recently with ABC's underperforming 2014 summer singing competition Rising Star, which allowed live voting for the East, Central, and Mountain coasts while having a tape-delayed save-like feature on the West Coast. Part of the reason why the show underperformed may have been due to complaints about the technology for voting, as well as the confusion brought upon by the West Coast votes. But you have to admit that it is a revolutionary idea that if implemented perfectly could have changed the way viewers think of broadcast television. But more than understandably, it had its problems, as this is new technology that is being used with a high risk factor.

What are your thoughts on this? What are your viewing habits by platform? What do you think may help steady the falling ratings of broadcast television. Let me know in the comments or polls below!

Works Cited

Bort, Julie. "Kevin Spacey: Netflix Made A LOT Of Money On 'House Of Cards'" Business Insider. Business Insider, Inc, 29 Oct. 2014. Web. 29 July 2015.

Mullaney, Tim. "Netflix Hits a Bump on the Way to TV-streaming Dominance." MarketWatch. Market Watch, Inc., 15 Oct. 2015. Web. 29 July 2015.

Rothfeld, Lindsay. "6 Trends Redefining the Way We Watch Television." Mashable. Mashable, 23 Dec. 2014. Web. 29 July 2015.

Thielman, Sam. "NBCUniversal Paid $1.4 Million per Episode to Air Modern Family. Will It Pay Off?" AdWeek. Adweek, 15 Sept. 2013. Web. 29 July 2015.


Poll



What Does NBC's Future Look Like?

Hi! I'm Hunter, author of the summer renew/cancel predictions and this is my final of five posts about the future of the major broadcast networks. This week I'm talking about NBC. How will NBC do in the 2015-16 season? How might the network do when its older shows end? Those are some of the questions that I will try to answer!

There are six new shows that will join NBC's schedule this fall. Blindspot is getting the network's best lead-in, Monday night episodes of The Voice. The other new series to consistently get this lead-in (Smash, Revolution, and The Blacklist) all earned a second season. Blindspot's chances of success are very good. Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris however has much worse chances. It will air about half of its run on Tuesdays at 10:00, with a lead-in of Tuesday episodes of The Voice. Then it will move to 8:00 on the same day. The show will likely fail because there are two different types of variety shows, ones that aim toward family audiences and ones that aim toward adult audiences. Family audiences are unlikely to tune in at 10:00, and adult audiences are unlikely to tune in at 8:00. There is a chance that the show will do well, but I doubt it. Starting in November, Chicago Med, a spin-off of Chicago Fire, will air on Tuesdays at 9:00, following The Voice and followed by Chicago Fire. In this timeslot the show should be able to do very well. Joining Thursdays, NBC's most difficult night, are two new series, Heroes Reborn, a sequel to the mid-2000s series Heroes, and The Player. Heroes Reborn is expected to do well by some people and do poorly by others. I believe that it will do poorly because Heroes fell in the ratings from its first season to its forth, and ratings are much lower today than they were then. Also, the Thursdays at 8:00 timeslot has been a very unsuccessful one recently. The Player however I expect to do even worse than Heroes Reborn. The Thursdays at 10:00 timeslot is even more famous for shows quickly failing. Most recently, Allegiance aired there and was canceled after five episodes. I doubt that The Player will do much better. Finally, People are Talking will air on Fridays at 8:30, in the network's only hour of comedy this fall. Following Undateable, which will most likely get mediocre or poor ratings at 8:00, the poorly reviewed People are Talking will almost certainly fail. So, out of the network's six new shows this fall, I expect only two to succeed.

Some of the network's returning shows also might not do very well. The Mysteries of Laura was only given 13 episodes for its second season, and for a reason: the show has poor ratings. It was most likely only renewed so that the network wouldn't look bad by not renewing any of their new shows from that season. The Blacklist, once NBC's strongest show, fell in the ratings last spring, and while it will likely do better in the fall, spring 2016 will likely have even worse ratings than spring 2015. Grimm will likely fall beneath 1.0 multiple times in its next season, as the show airs on Fridays and has been falling. Also, Undateable will likely fall even lower than Grimm, though it will be very cheap to produce as it is doing all live episodes this year. That leaves only the Dick Wolf-produced Chicago series and Law & Order: SVU.

The network might fare better with new shows at mid-season than in the fall. While there are some obvious failures such as the once-canceled Emerald City and broad comedy Crowded, a genre of comedy that does not do well on NBC, there is a chance that some of their new shows such as Game of Silence, Shades of Blue, You, Me, and the End of the World, Hot & Bothered, and Superstore could do well, though it most likely depends on the timeslot they are put in. Shades of Blue and You, Me, and the End of the World could significantly benefit from star power of Jennifer Lopez and Rob Lowe respectively, and comedies Hot & Bothered and Superstore could cause fans of 30 Rock and The Office return to NBC. There is one more new series coming to NBC in 2016, though it won't sound new to people who watched NBC back in the 1990's. Coach is returning to NBC, and while it could do well, it could just as easily do very poorly. I expect it to not make it to the schedule until summer though, with the amount of comedies held for midseason.

NBC desperately needs new hits right now. The Voice is still strong, but it is definitely declining, and in a few years it will no longer be a hit. Blindspot will likely do well in season one, but once it moves it will likely fail, just as Smash and Revolution did previously. Right now, NBC is riding on the backs of Sunday Night Football, The Voice, Chicago Fire, Chicago PD, Law & Order: SVU and most likely Chicago Med. NBC desperately needs a new hit, especially in the comedy department. Maybe Superstore could be it?

With the amount of open spots on NBC's early 2016 schedule, it is near impossible to predict what fall 2016 will look like for the network. An optimist might tell you that it will include Superstore, maybe Hot & Bothered, and Game of Silence or Shades of Blue or both. Some might say that it will look a lot like fall 2015's, with a lot of new shows, with Blindspot and Chicago Med replacing The Mysteries of Laura. I think it will be some sort of in-between.

NBC's future does not look good. However, this is NBC, and it could easily just bounce back. It is really hard to say.

What did you think of this article? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

The TV Ratings Guide Choice Awards Winners and Tiebreakers



Thanks to everyone who voted in and/or followed this mini-awards ceremony. Here were the winners:

Best Broadcast Drama: Empire
Best Cable Comedy: Baby Daddy
Best Animated Series: Bob's Burgers
Best Talk or Sketch Show: The Colbert Report
Best Comic Book Show: The Flash
Best ABC Show: How to Get Away with Murder
Best CBS Show: Mom
Best CW Show: The 100
Best FOX Show: Empire
Best NBC Show: Undateable
Best Online Comedy: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Best Online Drama: Daredevil
Best TV Ratings Guide Article Series: Broadcast Comedy Recaps

Which means there are a few which are tied. If you would like to vote, comment below!

Best Broadcast Comedy

  • Jane the Virgin
  • The Last Man On Earth
  • Undateable
Best Cable Drama
  • Better Call Saul
  • Pretty Little Liars
Best Competition Series
  • America's Got Talent
  • Survivor
  • The Voice (sorry MasterChef!)

Top Posts of the Week + Comment and Question of the Week

Welcome back! In case you haven't seen one of these before, there are four features in this post:
  • A raw listing of this week's top articles and its author. Click on the title to see the page.
  • A power ranking of the week's top articles based upon how long the article has been available. 
  • My favorite comment of the week (this is the hardest one)
  • One open-ended question that you are more than welcome to answer in the comments.
Remember, the post does not have to have been published this week in order to make the weekly rankings. Also, this feature is ineligible to make the list, as are posts such as the readers' survey, as they do not constitute as full-out articles. Here we go:

The Raw Rankings

The Power Rankings
Comment of the Week

This one comes from last week's Top Posts article where I asked the question of which network you would most like to work:


XYZ

Very interesting question. I think that cable/streaming and broadcast networks take a different approach, so I have two answers, one for each category.
For broadcast networks, it would be NBC. They always have bizarre pickups mixed in with some really promising ideas. This is the network that picked up promising Blindspot and Chicago Med and put them after The Voice (and to be fair, they lucked into the second schedule move) only to somehow think that picking up The Player and People Are Talking will be an asset to their schedule. There needs to be some sort of st andard in pickups and some direction given to the network. I'd focus them more on variety/entertainment/sports route while keeping solid procedurals going to fill in the drama hours.
For cable, it would be TNT. The network is a mess. They really can't figure out if they are procedural, action, or sci fi oriented so they try a combination of all three. Audiences have no clue what this network is targeting, which is causing them to avoid every single show on their network. My first task would be to abandon all sci fi on the network as that is not working. They attempted to acquire Grimm to further themselves in the genre space and it completely bombed on their network. If they can't get it to work in syndication, it won't work in original runs as the audience is not into that channel. Instead, I'd focus it on edgy procedurals and action oriented material (more Transporter and Agent X, less Falling Skies.)
Honorable mention to USA Network and ABC Family. Their networks are almost as messed up as TNT, and they need someone who can lead them as they both are a shadow of what they once were.

I also believe we had two new commenters on the latest renew/cancel post. Congratulations TVHype and rtz4567!

Question of the Week
  1. How would a season premiere or finale of Empire rate after the Super Bowl?

Summer Renew/Cancel Predictions - July 24: Extant Will Likely be Canceled

Hi! In case this is your first time reading my summer renew/cancel predictions post, I'm Hunter and I will be posting these predictions each weekend this summer, covering the summer shows on the five major broadcast networks. This is week six, and this week Welcome to Sweden premiered its second season on NBC. Also, this week I have to make a correction; I found out last weekend that Wayward Pines was canceled, which had been quietly revealed last week on Thursday when the tenth and final episode of the season was promoted as the "series finale". I apologize for the error, this week it will be corrected, and Wayward Pines will be in the "fate decided" category. I predicted this cancelation correctly, as in my July 10th post I had put it in the "will likely be canceled" category. That's enough talking for now, here are the summer shows divided into categories, and then my in-detail thoughts on a few of them. Enjoy!

Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average adults 18-49 rating)

Certain to be Canceled
The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC) (0.8)
Dates (CW) (0.1)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX) (0.5)
The Whispers (ABC) (1.0)

Will Likely be Canceled
Extant (CBS) (0.7)
Rookie Blue (ABC) (0.7)
Welcome to Sweden (NBC) (0.3)

Toss-Up
Mistresses (ABC) (0.8)

Will Likely be Renewed

Certain to be Renewed
Under the Dome (CBS) (1.1)
Zoo (CBS) (1.1)

Fate Determined
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC) CANCELED
American Odyssey (NBC) CANCELED
Aquarius (NBC) RENEWED
Beauty and the Beast (CW) RENEWED
Hannibal (NBC) CANCELED
Wayward Pines (FOX) CANCELED 

Yet to Premiere
The Carmichael Show (NBC)
Mr. Robinson (NBC)
Significant Mother (CW)

CBS was probably hoping that with the timeslot upgrade, Extant's ratings would improve. They did, but I doubt that 0.1 more was good enough. Extant was only able to notch a 0.7 airing after Big Brother, which got a 1.8. It's looking like even that deal with Amazon won't save Extant now. Extant will soon be extinct.

Welcome to Sweden premiered to miserable ratings. Last year, it easily got renewed with okay ratings, a renewal in Sweden, and the Poehler name. This year, the ratings are half what they were last year, and there has been no news yet about a renewal in Sweden, where the show was not as big in season two as it was in season one. It's not looking good for Welcome to Sweden.

While Extant is doing poorly, all hope is far from lost for scripted programming in CBS summers. Zoo was flat at 1.0 this week and Under the Dome went up to 1.0. Also, CBS obviously is satisfied, as they plan on continuing scripted programming during the summer with the addition of new political sci-fi dramedy BrainDead. This is a sign that at least one of Under the Dome and Zoo are for sure coming back, and probably both.

ABC summers' scripted programming is looking a lot worse than CBS'. While Thursday is a mess, The Whispers is also not looking good. This week it went back down to 0.8, and that was when I decided to move it to "certain to be canceled". What made The Whispers' fate even more certain though is when Lily Rabe, the series' star, got casted in American Horror Story. There is absolutely no chance now that The Whispers will be back for season two.

Speaking of ABC Thursdays, I have moved The Astronaut Wives Club to "certain to be canceled" after this week's 0.6 rating. Also, this Thursday Mistresses fell again to a 0.7, while Rookie Blue rose to a 0.8. While this makes me want to switch the two shows on here, for now they will stay put at "toss-up" and "will likely be canceled" respectively. Don't be surprised if either show moves in the near future though.

Right now almost every show has reached certainty. Only four shows, Extant, Rookie Blue, Welcome to Sweden, and Mistresses, have not. Next week, at least one of those shows will move somewhere. Come back next week to see what moves where!

Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? How do you think the upcoming summer shows will do? Leave a comment with your thoughts!

The Highs and Lows of Your Favorite TV Shows

This is a database created for The TV Ratings Guide to showcase the series highs and lows of each and every returning fall broadcast scripted show (and a couple reality as well). Some of the results may surprise you.

ABC:
Show Series High  Series Low
Once Upon a Time 
4.0
1.6
Dancing with the Stars
8.6
1.5
Castle
3.5
1.3
Fresh Off The Boat
2.5
1.3
Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD
4.7
1.3
The Middle
3.2
1.6
The Goldbergs
3.1
1.3
Modern Family
6.1
2.3
Black-ish
3.3
1.6
Nashville
2.8
1.1
Grey’s Anatomy
11.6
1.9
Scandal
3.8
1.9
How to Get Away with Murder
3.8
2.7
Last Man Standing
3.6
1.1
Shark Tank
2.3
1.1

CBS:

Show High Low
Madam Secretary
2.0
1.0
The Good Wife
3.2
0.9
CSI
11.6
1.1
CSI: Cyber
1.8
1.2
2 Broke Girls
7.1
1.6
Mike & Molly
4.8
1.6
Scorpion
3.2
1.9
NCIS
4.8
2.0
NCIS: LA
4.4
1.3
NCIS: NO
2.5
1.6
Person of Interest
3.4
1.1
Survivor
22.8
1.8
Criminal Minds
10.0
1.8
The Big Bang Theory
6.4
2.8
Mom
2.8
1.8
Elementary
7.8
1.0
The Amazing Race
6.8
1.0
Hawaii 5-0
5.6
1.1
Blue Bloods
2.2
1.0

FOX:

Show High Low
Bob’s Burgers
4.5
0.6
The Simpsons (since 1999)
10.4
1.2
Brooklyn 9-9
6.9
0.9
Family Guy
5.6
1.2
The Last Man On Earth
2.4
1.2
Gotham
3.3
1.5
Empire
3.8
6.9
Bones
5.2
1.0
Sleepy Hollow
3.5
1.2
MasterChef Junior
1.8
1.3

NBC:

ShowHighLow
The Voice
6.7
2.0
Chicago Fire 
2.7
1.4
The Mysteries of Laura
2.0
0.9
Law & Order: SVU
7.4
1.3
Chicago PD
2.2
1.4
Heroes
6.9
1.8
The Blacklist
8.4
1.2
Grimm
2.1
0.9


The CW:

Show High Low
Jane the Virgin
0.6
0.4
The Flash
1.9
1.2
iZombie
0.8
0.5
Arrow
1.4
0.7
Supernatural
2.6
0.6
The Vampire Diaries
2.1
0.5
The Originals
1.1
0.4