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Jess's Take: Renewals and Cancelations, Part 3

Hey folks, this is Jessica, and this is another installment of Jess's Take. I decided to make a third installment of renewal and cancelation predictions of selected network shows. I have gotten some great feedback on the last two renewal and cancelation installments, that I thought that I would make another installment just for fun. In the past two installments, I have compared predictions from TVBTN, The TV Grim Reaper, TV Watch US, TVLine, and our very own predictions, along with my verdict. Without further ado, here are some shows that are selected at random.

1. Nashville (ABC)
TVBTN: Likely to be Canceled
TV Grim Reaper: Likely to be Canceled
TV Watch US: Certain Cancelation
TVLine: Could go either way
TV Ratings Guide Prediction: Likely to be Canceled

Analysis: The syndication gods saved Nashville for a fourth season, but only time will tell if the show will be saved for a fifth. Gorman calls this show this year's Revenge. It doesn't have the ratings for it to be renewed for season 5, but there are extraneous factors that are in play. Music sales, included. Apparently, music sales saved Galavant from cancelation.

My verdict: However, extraneous factors only go so far. Ratings are likely to get worse in the spring, and I am seeing that a 90210-like scenario is becoming likely. It hit a series low of a 0.8 A18-49 rating, and the show could see a new series low when it returns. Likely to be canceled.

2. Elementary (CBS)
TVBTN: Toss Up
TV Grim Reaper: Toss Up
TV Watch US: Likely Renewal
TVLine: Too early to tell
TV Ratings Guide Prediction: Toss Up

Analysis: Elementary's ratings have tanked over the past couple of seasons. If renewed, expect a move to Sunday.

My verdict: I'm leaving this show in the toss up category. There are plenty of CBS shows that are more likely to go than this, but I'm watching it closely. 

3. Scream Queens (FOX)
TVBTN: Toss Up
TV Grim Reaper: Toss Up
TV Watch US: Toss Up
TVLine: A safe bet.
TV Ratings Guide Prediction: Toss Up

Analysis: Heavily hyped, but low rated and expensive.

My verdict: I am going to have to go against the hype for this and predict for its likely cancelation. Even though FOX had a ratings collapse this fall, I am seeing a Terra Nova/Utopia situation here. The show is expensive to produce, and has failed to deliver on what it should have done according to the ad rate calculations. Ultimately, cost is going to be the main factor in its eventual demise. Sorry, Ryan Murphy.

4. Grimm (NBC)
TVBTN: Likely to be Renewed 
TV Grim Reaper: Toss Up
TV Watch US: Toss Up
TVLine: A safe bet
TV Ratings Guide Prediction: Toss Up

Analysis: Grimm's ratings average has gotten fractional this season so far and is likely to get worse, although I'm not so sure if the show is to blame since it has two failing comedies as the lead in. 

My verdict: Keeping it at a toss up until spring. NBC will have some adjusting to do once midseason rolls around.

5. Jane the Virgin (CW)
TVBTN: Toss Up
TV Grim Reaper: Likely to be Renewed
TV Watch US: Toss Up
TVLine: A safe bet
TV Ratings Guide Prediction: Certain to be Renewed 

Analysis: CBS Studios Production. Earning more Golden Globe nominations. It's a show that will have 44 episodes at the end of its second season. One more full season makes it eligible for the guarantee of the syndication gods. 

My verdict: Because of CBS affirmative action, all signs point to renewal. 

Question: Crazy Ex-Girlfriend got California tax credits for its first season. Would the network give the show the most mind-boggling renewal of the season, looking at Beauty and the Beast's renewal two seasons ago, as well as last season's Galavant and American Crime renewals? Or will its low ratings seal its fate for the chopping block?