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CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Mom' is Certain to be Renewed

New York Times

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes follows. My current predictions are as of November 7, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.




   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
Supergirl
2.1 / 3.1 / 2.6
--
3
NCIS
2.1 / 2.5 / 2.23
-7.1%
4
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.03
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.85
-19.6%
6
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.68
-32.8%
7
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 1.9 / 1.67
-20.5%
8
Limitless
1.4 / 1.9 / 1.60
--
9
Mom
- / 1.5 / 1.50
-34.8%
10
Madam Secretary
1.2 / 1.5 / 1.30
-9.7%
11
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.23
--
12
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.21
-6.9%
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.2 / 1.20
-25.0%
14
Elementary
- / 1.1 / 1.10
-15.3%
15
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.10
-8.3%
16
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.1 / 1.07
-10.8%
17
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.0 / 0.80
-42.9%





MOM: The critically acclaimed comedy returned to less than solid form on Thursday, posting a 1.5 rating in the key demo at 9:00. This series low was down 40 percent from the 2.5 its season premiere earned in 2014, when the show was the direct lead-out of The Big Bang Theory. However, a third season Chuck Lorre show is not in danger for CBS. Everything is in order for a fourth season. The show is "Certain to be Renewed."

ELEMENTARY: The fourth season premiere earned a measly 1.1 rating on Thursday, which was down 8 percent from its season opener in 2014. CBS has been content with Elementary's low performance during its run due in large (if not only) part to its huge $3M/episode syndication package. Thus, the show has favorable odds for renewal above most of its similarly-performing series. If you've got $3M coming in per episode in a syndication package like this, you're going to be wined-and-dined by Les Moonves, as we've seen with the show remaining firmly on the Thursday schedule. The show should have a chance for another go around to reap additional millions, even if that means moving it around to Fridays or Sundays next season, which is the most likely result. I currently predict Elementary as "Likely to be Renewed."

LIFE IN PIECES:
I have upgraded the comedy from "Likely to be Canceled" to "On the Bubble" as it begins its run as part of the Thursday comedy line-up, sandwiched between its protective lead-in The Big Bang Theory and lead-out Mom, with 2 Broke Girls set to complete the comedy block next week in the 9:30 slot. LiP had pretty poor retention once again this week (~52 percent). However, working in its favor is its recent backorder. Word was that CBS was trying to only get a partial backorder, most likely echoing disappointment with its performance within the network, but they ended up being coaxed into ordering a full season of 22 episodes. Getting this far, there's a chance it will make it through to a second season. This one will be watched closely before any further predictions are made.