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Are Ad Rates Directly Correlated to Ratings?

Recently the ad rates this series were released (click here). Let's look at just ABC for now, and see how far off some shows' ratings may be from their relative standing in ad prices. For new shows, this is largely due to an over/under estimation of its ratings--for veteran shows, it may depend on expected trends, the demographics it hits, etc.

In the 2014-2015 TV season, ABC's scripted show average for fall series was a 1.766. This year's average ad rate for a fall ABC show was $138,240.

Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say ABC is expecting another 1.766 average. Let's see what the predicted ratings for the shows would be if the ratings and ad rates were directly correlated:

  • Once Upon a Time: 2.03
  • Blood & Oil: 1.70
  • Quantico: 1.78
  • Castle: 1.51
  • The Muppets: 1.68
  • Fresh Off The Boat: 1.56
  • Marvel's Agents of SHIELD: 1.69
  • Wicked City: 1.37
  • The Middle: 1.72 1.80
  • The Goldbergs: 1.73
  • Modern Family: 3.02
  • Blackish: 1.99
  • Nashville: 1.19
  • Grey's Anatomy: 2.05
  • Scandal: 2.65
  • How to Get Away with Murder: 2.94
  • Last Man Standing: 0.83
  • Dr. Ken: 0.81
I mean, these numbers aren't exactly that far off from the real ones if ABC expected them to be directly correlated to the ad rates. It's impossible to tell. But if that is indeed the case, what are the winners and losers of ABC so far this season?

Winners
  • The Middle
  • The Goldbergs
  • Grey's Anatomy
  • Last Man Standing 
  • Dr. Ken
Losers
  • Once Upon a Time
  • Blood & Oil
  • Quantico
  • Castle
  • Wicked City
  • How to Get Away with Murder
Honorable Mentions
  • Fresh Off The Boat
  • Modern Family
  • Blackish
  • Nashville
  • Scandal
Just something to think about. What do you think? Would you like me to do this with other networks as well? Leave your thoughts!