Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)
Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)
Time After Time (0.6, 0.4-0.7)
Likely to be Canceled
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
American Crime (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)
Likely to be Renewed
The Catch (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.0-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 1.9-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.6, 1.3-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7
Last Man Standing: This show has held up very well this season, making it an even more valuable player for ABC. Each season, the show's fate is decided near the last minute, but I expect it to end up getting renewed again this year, because its year-to-year decline is so small, resulting in the show being more helpful for the network this year than the last.
Quantico: Despite the different lead-in, and all of the promotion that went into the show's reboot to become more of a procedural, Quantico only went up one tenth this week from its last episode, which tied the rating it got for most of its episodes that aired after The Bachelor. ABC really likes Quantico, but I don't think that they can save it with how low of ratings it is getting.
American Crime: ABC's award-receiving anthology series started off its third season with a low rating of 0.5. At that level, it was unlikely that ABC would renew it, even with the awards and acclaim it received, and now it dropped even lower in its second week, to 0.4. This makes it even harder for ABC to renew it. It is highly unlikely that ABC will renew American Crime once again.
The Catch: This show stayed even at 0.7 this week, even with a lead-in that was a tenth lower. 0.7 is certainly not a great rating, especially out of a 1.3, but with Shonda Rhimes as executive producer, I think that the show will be able to survive. However, if it hits one or two 0.6s, I will likely have to change my mind.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!